Weekly Main Slate Game Breakdowns

NFL Fantasy 2020 – Draftkings Picks and Game Breakdowns – 10 Game Main Slate – Week 5 – October 11, 2020

NFL Fantasy 2020 – Draftkings Picks and Game Breakdowns – 11 Game Main Slate – Week 4 – October 4, 2020

NFL Fantasy 2020 – Draftkings Picks and Game Breakdowns – 13 Game Main Slate – Week 3 – September 27, 2020

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NFL Fantasy 2020 – Draftkings Picks and Game Breakdowns – 13 Game Main Slate – Week 2 – September 20, 2020

Week 1 – 2020 Main Slate Game Breakdown

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Week 7 – 2019 Game Breakdown

NFL DFS 2019 – Week 6 – 101319

Over/Under 48     BAL -12

The first thing we gotta keep in mind with the BAL Ravens is that they’re not as great defensively as they’ve been in years past, especially in the passing game. They have the third worst pass defense in the league. CIN is literally the worst team in the league by record, but their passing offense is in the top third. The game total suggests that BAL is going to get ahead and eventually lean on Mark Ingram on the ground, but from behind we should expect a lot of passing attempts from Dalton, which will invariably get the ball in the hands of Tyler Boyd and co. 

When betting on this, we have to decide if the Bengals really are as bad as their record says they are (Bill Parcells ref. ^). I like Mark Ingram in this game at 6600. He should be in store for 15 to 17 carries and about 3 receptions. On this slate, with the RB value that we’ll discuss later, his pricetag does seem a tad steep, as he’s very TD dependent. Great cash play and good enough for tournaments. At 6900, the second most expensive QB on the slate, I don’t think Lamar Jackson needs to do that much in this heavily favored game. The Ravens should have a stranglehold on the lead, give Mark (or Gus at some point) the ball and Lamar can be a great game manager from then on out. He’ll probably get you 22 to 26 fpts but every week there are several much cheaper guys who can give that to you. One interesting trend I’ve noticed is that CIN does a good job of locking down the top offensive weapon on the other side consistently often. In Week 4 against the Steelers, WR1 JuJu was outscored and out-targeted by the WR2; same situation of WR2 outdoing WR1 occurred against the Bills, the 49ers and the Seahawks. That defense can cover the WR1 like nobody’s business but they give it up to the secondary option. On this BAL team, that’s 4800 Mark Andrews. Dude is pricey, no doubt, but the targets are there, the WR1 is banged up and he’s the top RZ guy. I don’t think I’ll play Ingram and Andrews in the same lineups but I could easily see having them individually in quite a few of my lineups. 

As bad as the BAL Defense has played this season, I don’t have any faith in any of the Bengals to take advantage of it. Dalton is historically turnover prone and still makes a ton of bad decisions, Auden Tate might be worth a flyer but he’s up to 4500 now and that’s not nearly as nice of a value as his budget friendly 3500 pricetag over the last 2 weeks. Tyler Boyd is 6300 and he just had his best game of the season last week. With the injuries to the other two top receivers on the team, he’s going to have a ton of volume until AJ Green is back. He has a real tough matchup this week against shadow corner Humphrey and doesn’t play as well as an underdog on the road. Any receiver who gets the volume that Boyd does can perform well any week, regardless of defense quality, he’s not a terrible play. I won’t play him, but only because I like other guys more. The only guy I’d play from the CIN side is Tyler Eifert. He’s a very low end option, but if you need a cheap TE, he’s a good choice. I bet he scores a TD in this one. He was chalky last week and he didn’t pay off; usually that’s a good omen for him going into post-chalk week. 

SEA @ CLE

Over/Under 47     CLE -1

The line movement all week for this game would turn any average dude into a conspiracy theorist. The favored team switched from CLE to SEA. I don’t really get it. SEA is obviously the better team on the field and between coaching staffs. Why in the world would Vegas have CLE as the favorite at any point in the week? CLE played Monday and SEA played last Thursday, so the rest differential alone has me putting money on Seattle winning by more than 2, no doubt. 

This game has a relatively high total at 47 points. SEA will be up against the 3rd worst rush defense in the league going into the game as 12th of 32 in rushing yards per game. RB1 Chris Carson should see a ton of carries and should be able to tiptoe into the endzone at least once, probably twice in this game. At a 6k pricetag, thats real solid: 20 plus carries and a few targets, yep, get on top of that. He’s one of my favorite plays of the week. CLE statistically has a good pass D but it’s probably misleading when their opponents can just run the ball down their throat the whole time, they don’t need to pass. Carson is my only play on Seattle, Lockett could be a flier, Wilson has played excellent this year and TE Dissly is getting targets out the wazoo, but again, I think Carson and more Carson should be the gameplan against CLE. I like pairing my RB1’s with a D when i can and SEA could very well pick off a Baker a time or two. It’s not my favorite defensive play because I’m not sure the Browns offense is as bad as they’re playing but they could be, so I’ll add the SEA DEF at 3400 in my player pool in case Baker forgets how to play football again another week in a row against a very well coached Seahawks squad. 

On the CLE side of the ball, Baker Mayfield scored 1.0 fantasy point last week. Take a moment to let that sink in. How’s your throwing arm feeling? If you rushed for 10 yards and threw one reception to your RB for 10 yards and then just didn’t fumble or throw it again the entire game you would have outscored Baker last week. Obviously that scenario is ridiculous, but the Browns are really in a tough spot in a great offensive weapon situation. That O line is just bad and Baker and the offensive coordinator are not adjusting to that. That should change this week, they should get Chubb some targets out of the backfield against a tough rush D in SEA and they should give Baker a lot more quick pass plays closer to the line of scrimmage and try to piecemeal their way down the field. That’s what they SHOULD do. If they do that, I like Landry at 5200 (RZ target leader – doubling the next closest) and I like OBJ objectively but not at 6800. I don’t feel very confident in rostering anyone on the CLE side, but at 5200, WR2 Jarvis Landry is a good GPP Play. I’ll have Chubb in a receptions prop bet of 3+ receptions if I can find that too. He had 1 last week, but a minimum of 4 targets in every other week, and RB1s in the last 3 weeks are averaging over 5 catches per game vs SEA.

NO @ JAX

Over/Under 43     JAX -2.5

On the Draftkings side of things, this game could have huge implications for the rest of the slate. Saints RB1 Alvin Karmara is listed as questionable for the game. He was limited on Thursday, DNP on friday. We definitely need to keep our eyes on the injury report today for Saturday’s practice and probably even Sunday morning before kick. Thankfully it’s a noon game so at minimum we should know by 10:30AM CT whether he’s dressed out or in street clothes. If he doesn’t play, at 3700, Latavius Murray is going to get a ton of run and is almost a must play. He can catch, he can run, he just needs the opportunity, and against the 25th ranked rush Defense, he’s in a prime spot to shine. If Kamara doesn’t play Michael Thomas could also get 15+ targets. That offense is very narrow in its target share. Thomas leads the team by a mile and the only other realistic passing targets are Kamara and Jared Cook. Thomas at 7800 is pricey, but he’s got a solid floor consistently. Definitely not my favorite upside guy in this contest but a very solid cash play. I’m not playing him in any GPP lineup, but cash sure. At 3400 Jared Cook doesn’t have a good matchup, but the volume is there for that price with Kamara playing, and goes up at least 2 or 3 targets if Kamara sits. I don’t like that Cook scored his only TD of the year last game, but he looks like he’s finally finding his groove in the offense. I love the situation for him, not sure how much of him I’ll have, but he’s definitely going to be in my player pool because 1 TD and 5 for 50, easily pays off 3400. I think he’ll be contrarian too, because of the game total, the DVOA and because value is opening up a ton at the RB position so people are able to spend up in other spots like TE.

On the home team side of the ball, Jacksonville and QB Gardner Minshew are getting better by the week. Minshew helped carry his squad to victory in weeks 3 and 4 and came within a TD in Week 5, but put up 374 yards, 2 TDs and 42 yards rushing in the losing effort. 27.2 DK points last week at 5300 was exceptional. This week he’s 5k flat and playing against a NO squad potentially without their 2nd best offensive weapon, that also plays a huge part in clock management. On paper NO ranks 4th against the RB position, so that is a little worrisome before digging deeper but Fournette is on another level right now, playing like a poor man’s CMC. He saw 100% of snaps last week and is very much involved in every aspect of the offense. Tons of targets, averaging about 25 carries over the last 2 and about 150 yards each game. He’s only had 1 TD so far this year too!! That should change this week; he should get in the endzone. I’ll find a prop bet on that bad boy. WR1.5 DJ Chark has scored a TD in every game he’s played so far this year but one. The target volume is so high for him that he’s worth a spot in your player pool in every game he’s at or around 5500. Same goes for WR1.5 Dede Westbrook, whos priced at 5100. If any receiver is due to find the end zone it’s Westbrook. After further review, I think this line is off, the Jaguars should win by at least 10 points in this one. The Saints D is middle of the pack at best and they’re playing against Fournette running on all cylinders, QB Minshew maturing before our very eyes tossing bombs to an incredibly young and talented pair of hotshot receivers. And Kamara is not at 100 percent IF he even plays? Getting on the Jags at -2.5 as we speak. I like the upside of the Jacksonville Def in this spot, especially if Kamara is out, and even more especially at 2200. Not sure Bridgewater throws enough to expect a lot of turnovers but without Kamara, then what? 10 to 14 points at 2200 for some sacks and keeping the Saints from scoring much,  could be valuable! 

HOU @ KC

Over/Under 55.5     KC -4

Highest point total of the week. Just about everyone is going to try to get a piece of this game in some form or fashion. The Texans scored 55 points last week and KC has the number one pass offense in the league. I actually like HOU to win this game. They may not be the better team but they certainly are the healthier team, and that might be enough. Besides, I’m kinda looking forward to seeing all the ‘sky is falling’ material ESPN would put together if KC lost 2 in a row. 

On the Texans side of the ball you can never go wrong with Deshaun Watson. He’s 6700 in salary and the gamescript suggests he’ll be throwing as much if not more than he did last week, when he crossed the 400 yard mark (and 44.7 DK points). Will Fuller was dominant last week with 16 targets on the day. At 6K, there’s no way we should be expectiving another 50+ fantasy point type game but he really is good, a healthy Will Fuller may very well be a 6K type player every week. I don’t often like playing players after the best game of their career because it’s a perfect let down spot, but i’ll have some shares of him. Deandre Hopkins at 7400 feels like the right play. The price keeps coming down and he’s very much due for an incredible game, which he hasn’t really had since week 1. Right now the HOU offense is just stacked with skill players from Hopkins on down to the TE position which scored twice last week. This is probably a good week to make some lineups with a naked Deshaun Watson (when you draft him but don’t stack him with one of his receivers). I have no idea who he targets most this week and who ends up in the endzone. I’m guessing it’s a Hopkins week because I know that they want to keep him engaged and he hasn’t had a TD in 4 consecutive games. I think they’d want to force feed that just a little bit, but it’s so hard to say with the pass distribution the way it is currently against a defense with holes everywhere. RB Carlos Hyde is going to be chalky this week going up against the 3rd worst rush D in the league. At 4400, I can see it, i’ll add him to my player pool, I don’t feel great about it, because he doesn’t get RB1 high volume and he doesn’t get any targets, ceding them to Duke Johnson. At that price though, if Hyde can find his way in the end zone and get close to 70 to 85 yards rushing, he’s a safe cash game guy. 12 to 18ish DK points sounds about right for him in this game. 

KC on the other side is an elite offensive machine most weeks. QB Patrick Mahomes is banged up with an ankle injury that I think might be a little worse than they’re letting on. Tyreke Hill is probably going to play but I won’t touch him in his first game back from that type of injury. Sammy Watkins is out. This team is real deep offensively though, after Watkins: Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, all of these guys look like talented receivers so far this season when they’ve been given an opportunity to succeed. The target volume is severely inconsistent for these dudes and it feels a little weird to say this, but I don’t really like the KC offense much in this game. Robinson and Hardman for 5k+ I don’t feel good about. Hill at 6900 in his first game back from serious injury, nope. That leaves us with 3500 Byron Pringle, a cheap chalky play, who just had his best game of his career last week, nope to that again. Now, I like TE1 Travis Kelce at 7k. His volume is very consistent regardless of injury status of any wide receiver(s). He’s very expensive but i’ll have him in my player pool in case I find room to get up to him. 20+ points seems right about what we should see from him this week. He hasn’t scored a TD in 3 weeks too, I’m sure he’s itching to get in the endzone against a poor Texans pass defense.

WAS @ MIA

Over/Under 41     WAS -3.5

This is the game of the week right here. Who is the worst team in the league? It’s probably one of these two. It’s a low total game but there should be plenty enough points scored to get one of the RBs flaming. 

WAS comes in as the slightly better team from a statistical standpoint. While MIA is either last or second to last by just about every major metric across the board. QB Keenum has 4 interceptions over his last 2 games, before sitting out a week due to a foot injury. He’s not going to be fresh and quite frankly he’s not very good whether he’s fresh or healthy so it’s hard to put much trust in him or the players he’s asked to throw to. WAS fired their head coach last week and apparently the interim HC says he wants to pound the rock and give way more touches to Adrian Peterson. AP is a nicely priced 4500 for a starting RB who’s set to get a lot more carries. Will he actually get more carries than his 10 a game that he’s averaging thus far? If it helps them build a lead, I think they continue to give him the ball and he could see 16 to 20 carries and a TD or 2 from some nice goal line work. But if they get down in the game, I don’t see why any interim HC would stick with a tired RB who doesn’t get involved in the passing game. RB2 Chris Thompson at this stage in his career is a better back than AP and he should be on top of the depth chart if winning was something WAS was interested in. In this one single game where AP starts against the worst team in football, as long as the new HC doesn’t find out how much better Thompson is than Peterson, then Adrian Peterson could be in store for a really good week. If ever there is a week this entire season to play AP, this is the single time to get him in your lineups. He is very much a gpp play because AP might not do much with additional touches, but it could work out well. At 4500, I like the price and the situation this week.

On the MIA side of the ball, Rosen is legitimately terrible. He holds a rather impressive 3:1 interception to TD ratio and is probably worse than that. Both Davante Parker and Preston Williams are ok receivers but their ceiling with Rosen at QB is average at best. Both fellas are over 4k and that is not nearly low enough to take a chance on. RB1 Drake is coming off of a Bye and actually looks decent so far this season. He’s not going to get a lot of touches most weeks because they’ll be playing from so far behind but he’s still seeing about 10 touches AND 5 targets regardless of what’s on the scoreboard. Also worth noting, his RB2 is dealing with a foot injury and will not be 100% if he plays at all.

This week I think you have to make a choice: Adrian Peterson or Kenyan Drake. One of those guys should have a really big week and will easily hit value and the other probably busts. I like both of them this week enough to include in my already deep RB player pool. I lean Drake because I think he has more big play potential with his usage in the pass game.

PHI @ MIN

Over/Under 44     MIN-3

PHI QB Carson Wentz scored a single TD against the terrible Jets and 1 TD against the terrible ATL pass defense. He’s not very good at all and at a 6k pricetag with plenty of other options around the same price range, there’s no way I get him anywhere close to my lineups. TE Zach Ertz is usually a decent, high floor play but I don’t think he hits the 20 points to pay off his pricetag in this one. I’m not playing any Eagles.

The run defense of the PHI team is first in the league in rushing yards per game so we have to expect Dalvin Cook to see a reduction in his rushing stats and an uptick in his targets. QB Kirk Cousins is on a mission right now to pass the ball to Adam Thielen and I don’t see why that would discontinue against a poor PHI pass D. At 6700, I like Thielen a lot. Thielen and the MIN Defense are the only plays I like. I wish there was more to say about this game.  (I have MIN -3 in a parlay .)

ATL @ ARI

Over/Under 52     ATL -2.5

I had so many notes scribbled about this game it’s ridiculous. I’m stoked about this matchup: Little Kyler Murray and his find-a-way moxie against ATL’s enormously talented receiving corps. 

This game has the second highest projected matchup total on the board this week. Most weeks, it would probably have the highest total. 

On the ATL side of the ball you have to like Matt Ryan. At 6400, he’s hit the 300 yard bonus every week thus far and has so many great weapons at his disposal that seems to multiply by the week. If he got yardage for the times he’s thrown the ball to the other team he might average closer to 350 yards a game too. Admittedly, he’s interception prone, averaging more than one per game, but he’s doing everything else right and a great QB play this week. WR1 Julio is a little banged up, still working through a hip injury so I’m not playing him. Slot receivers have averaged 14.8 DK points per game this year vs ARI, so WR2 Sanu could be in store to take advantage of that. I like Mohamed Sanu this week at a very reasonable 4500 salary. WR3 Calvin Ridley had a great game last week and seems to be teaming up with Sanu and Austin Hooper to capitalize on the extra coverage when the defense shifts over to bottle up Julio. Ryan, Ridley, Sanu and Hooper will all be in my player pool. 

On the ARI side of the ball, Kyler looks mighty good. He’s 6500 this week against a very, very poor ATL defense. The Falcons have allowed the most DK points to the WR position so far this season. WR2 Christian Kirk didn’t practice much this week and his status remains questionable. Even if he does play, at 5200, he won’t be 100%, and so his price is just too steep. I like Larry Fitzgerald at 6100, because of the matchup primarily but also because he won’t likely be high owned and the volume is there with Kirk in play and will be higher if Kirk sits. ARI has a few other receivers who will see the field but none of them have shown enough upside to be worth drafting. RB1 David Johnson is questionable going into this game and we probably won’t get an update until 10:30AM CT. If he doesn’t play, Chase Edmonds should be a great cheap flier. At 4600, I like him a ton if DJ is out. 

SF @ LAR

Over/Under 48.5     LAR -4

San Francisco comes in undefeated with the number one rushing offense in the league. They’ve also played CLE, PIT (Rudolph), CIN, and TB, who are all bottom level squads. An average team, should beat those 4 opponents. This game has a high point total but I’m not quite sure the scoring gets there. SF recently lost its fullback and starting right tackle, both losses that will reduce the potency of their ground offense. Jimmy G hasn’t faced a team this good so far this season and it’s going to be a challenge facing a hungry Rams team in LA. Last week was the only week Jimmy didn’t throw an interception so he’s probably throwing a pick or two in this one. I don’t like Jimmy this week, especially at 5700 and I never like any of his receivers. Kittle is questionable with a groin injury and even if he plays I don’t feel good about him. The Rams should blitz Jimmy G a lot and man cover Kittle to try to keep the ball out of his hands. The Rams are a mediocre defense by league standards but significantly better than the defenses SF has faced thus far this season. I won’t have any 49ers on my roster.

On the LAR side of the ball I like just about everyone. Gurley is out in this one so backup RB Malcom Brown at 4300 is a decent GPP option. He’ll be very popular. He’s so cheap that I’ll add him to my player pool in case he gets a lot of goal line work. I don’t expect him to put up a ton of yardage but it’s not inconceivable for Cooper Kupp, Woods and Cooks to get the offense into some first and goal opportunities and Brown falls into the endzone a time or two. Without Gurley, Jared Goff is a great play paired with Kupp and/or Robert Woods. Cooks is trending down but if you’re feeling him, why not. I won’t be going there, but I get it. I like the Rams D too with the injuries on the SF side and Jimmy G’s turnover potential. 

TEN @ DEN

Over/Under 39     DEN -2.5

Man…I hate this game. This projects to be the lowest scoring game on the slate. Its set up for a lot of carries and a lot of punting. Neither QB is objectively any good. 

I’m going to make this analysis short because I don’t want us to overthink it. With a total this low we’d generally tend to go with the favorite RB1 and pair him with his defense and move on our merry way. The problem is that the favorite isn’t projected to score much and both teams are going to be running the ball often, thus reducing potential interceptions. We typically want a young gun-slinging QB to choose a defense against paired with our RB, this just isn’t one of those games. I don’t like the fantasy upside of this game and I don’t like the players in it. Hard pass. 

DAL @ NYJ

Over/Under 43.5     DAL -8.5

Now, to the final game of this beautiful weekend. DAL goes to NYJ as a huge favorite in a game with a low point total. Does anyone know how good the Cowboys are? I don’t think the Cowboys themselves have any idea how good they are. After winning their first 3 games of the season, they’ve lost their last 2 and a light panic is starting to settle in. Dak’s played well against every opponent but NO; he’s scored over 23.5 fpts in each of those contests. He’s got Gallup back healthy and Cooper with his crisp route running. They throw it to TE Witten exactly 4 times in every game and all for very short yardage pickups. This volume and yardage are just not enough to bring Witten’s stat lines up to relevancy. Zeke Elliott is the most expensive player on the slate this week and I usually steer clear of those gentlemen but I think this is a great opportunity for Zeke to regain his form. With a lead, he should get a ton of carries and get the goal line work to pair with it to extend his TD streak to 3 games. I like Dak objectively but I don’t think he has to do too much in this game. I like either Gallup or Cooper as a fairly sneaky one off. Amari Cooper is a little pricey at 7k but could easily exceed value. Michael Gallup at 5600 seems more palatable but much lower upside than Cooper and certainly a lower floor. Zeke and Cooper or Gallup are my faves in this one.

On the NYJ side of the ball, the Jets are excited that Sam Darnold has finally recovered from his Mono condition and he’ll see his first game action since week 1. He wasn’t very good in week 1. In fact, with or without Darnold, the Jets are just a really bad team overall. Leveon Bell has been talked up this week, because he’s priced at 6400, far less historically than his normal pricetag, but I think they’re confusing this Bell with PIT Bell. He was great in Pittsburgh because he ran behind a good offensive line and also because there were 1 if not 2 all pro caliber wide receivers in front of him that kept the middle of the DEF from crowding the box. In NY, the Jets have a bad line to run behind and bad wide receivers who continue to show that they have not only no upside but also no floor, which is generally a really bad combination. I’m adding the Cowboys D to the player pool simply because of how bad this Jets team is. Not playing any Jets at all.

Good luck in week 6!

————————————

NFL DFS 2019 – Week 5 – 100619

JAX @ CAR

Over/Under 40     CAR – 3

This game has the second lowest point total on the board so I won’t be investing too much into either squad other than the favorite’s D and RB1. The CAR Defense would be my primary consideration with such a low point total with the #1 pass defense in the league playing against a rookie QB in charge of the #22 Pass Offense; 2800 is a bargain price with that kind of forced turnover potential.

The game script leans towards Fournette very much involved at first until the passing game never opens up consistently for his fellow WRs. CAR will likely disguise a lot of coverages that send more men forward at the snap reducing Leonard’s effectiveness and eventually leading towards JAX QB Minshew making quite a few ill-advised passes. I’d expect an interception or two and a respectable 3 to 5 sacks at minimum. On the CAR offensive side of the ball, everyone knows that Run CMC (Christian McCaffrey) is going to get his touches. Last week (and usually every week) McCaffrey was the only back in the league to see 100% of the team’s RB snaps. The workload is there especially if the CAR Defense does their part. 8700 is an awful lot to pay for anyone in such a low scoring affair but he’s about as cash-game viable as you can find. I don’t like wide receivers on either side of the ball or either QBs as a result.

ARI @ CIN

Over/Under 47.5     CIN – 3

David Johnson has to be more excited than a kid in a candy store heading into this game. Coming off a week 4 game where he had 139 yards of total offense, with the opportunity this week to run against the 27th best rushing defense in the league in yards per game, averaging 1.2 rushing TDs/Game; DJ is set up for success. This is also a narrative game, as long time ARI team owner passed away mid-week, not that an underachieving winless team needs any additional incentive. This game has the second highest projected point total on the board and you know how I feel about 2nd highest projected point total games: Get on Em! On the ARI side of the ball, leader in team targets Christian Kirk is out this week due to injury so Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson should be expected to pick up the slack. If you want to get cute by drafting Damiere Byrd who should get a target or two more in Kirk’s stead but there’s only one problem with that: he’s not very good and he’s questionable to play. I don’t trust anyone else on the ARI offense because they’ve done absolutely nothing. QB Kyler Murray could be a fit if you’re expecting him to do some dancing out of the pocket some this week, which is very much a real possibility. BUF Josh Allen rushed for 49 yards against CIN 2 weeks ago and Murray has definitively more rushing upside. 

On the other side of the ball CIN has a mediocre passing offense but they get to play against a bottom third pass defense (and rush defense) this Sunday. WR1 Tyler Boyd Leads CIN in targets and is coming off of 2 bad games in a row. His current 6500 price reflects the expected regression to the mean in this game and unfortunately seems a tad steep coming off games of 6.3 and 12.8 fantasy points in the last 2. With WR2 John Ross out for this one Boyd is going to capitalize on that target share adjustment along with the popular cheap-priced pick of the week: Auden Tate. He’s averaged 8 targets over the past 2 weeks and at 3500 he doesn’t have to do much to return value. CIN RB1 Joe Mixon is in the type of position GPP hotshots gravitate towards. His numbers don’t look great so far this season but they’re certainly in their upswing, as he’s doubled his yardage output in the last 2 weeks when compared to his first two weeks of this season. He’s a true stud that is slowly finding his way back into form. His schedule for the foreseeable future this season is brutal, going up against some rather hard-nosed rushing defenses and this ARI squad is the best matchup he’ll get until week 11. If he’s going to go off some time in the first half of this season, it’s going to be this week, at home, against a winless ARI squad. Why the hell not throw Andy Dalton in the mix too while you’re at it. He’s priced up to 5700, his highest price of the season but he is going against the ARI defense and he’s also due for just as much regression as Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd. Last but not least TE Tyler Eiffert is the chalkiest TE we’ve seen in a long time, going up against an ARI squad that’s given up at least one TD to the TE position in each game of the season thus far…and at 3300, come on now.

ATL @ HOU

Over/Under 50     HOU – 4

We’ve finally found the highest projected point total of the week, with an Over/Under of 50. Matt Ryan has had 300+ passing yards in every game this season. He’s struggled with throwing the ball to the other team in every game but one, but he’s getting the yardage. Fortunately the Texans have mustered only 1 INT thus far this season. His number 1 WR Julio Jones scored 9.9 fpts last game and is certainly due for some positive regression. He’s in the perfect spot to do so against the Texans bottom 3rd pass D as he’s scored a TD in every week but week 4 so he’s in a prime spot to get back to the mean, a VERY high mean. TE Austin Hooper has been playing out of his mind and although he’s a solid TE, he’s not 18.4 FPPG good. He’s due for a down game. This may not be it, but it’s about that time to start looking to jump off that Hooper train if even briefly. Two weeks ago WR1, Keenan Allen, scored 46.60 fpts against this HOU pass defense, so that’s another reason why it should be Julio week this week. Ridley is the only other receiver with solid upside but I don’t like him much this week. 

On the other side of the ball, ATL’s defense is mediocre. Houston’s pass offense is in the bottom third of the league and their rushing offense is slightly above average. The backfield isn’t consistent and don’t get enough touches to have much faith in. The passing game and Watson’s legs are the only 3 things reliable enough to keep HOU in this game. Deshaun Watson had a down game last week against a tough CAR defense and is in a great position to come back with a vengeance against this ATL Defense. WR1 Deandre Hopkins is in store for quite a few targets and is coming off of 3 terrible games. The HOU O line doesn’t give Watson enough time to get quality passes to Hopkins as often as the team would like. WR2 Will Fuller has underachieved so far this year but a very big day for him is coming. At 4500, Fuller is a great GPP play.

TB @ NO

Over/Under 45.5     NO – 3

This is one intriguing point total. TB and its 8th best pass offense go up against the 24th best pass defense — that means that Jameis Winston has his work cut out for him. If he can just keep his interceptions to a minimum and continue to build on his last 2 games in which he scored 7 total passing TDs, he can hit value again this week. WR2 and WR1, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans respectively, make up one of the most explosive WR tandems in the league. The team is stacked at TE also, but neither top TEs on the roster get enough snaps to make reasonable expectations for. A Winston/Evans or Winston/Godwin stack feels like chasing so I’ll probably stay away but I can see either of those pairings doing well.

NO goes against the #1 rush defense in the league in TB this week. Kamara is in a league of his own generally speaking but this certainly isn’t the best matchup for him. He should get less carries overall and more targets out of the backfield especially if TB builds up a lead first. TB has one of the worst passing defenses in the league so if Bridgewater can get the ball to Michael Thomas, the WR1 could have a field day. If NO had any consistent other WR2 or WR3 they have an opportunity to do well in this one too. Thomas should provide a safe floor, especially at bargain bin pricing of 6600 for a player of his calibur. 

TB should stop Kamara from crushing and cover Thomas well enough without any other reasonable pass threats to deflect attention towards and I like TB to take this one. NO gets the -3 because they’re the home team, not because they’re more likely to win. Very sneaky play is the TB Defense. They had 40 points scored on them last week and still had 15.00 fpts, that’s pretty nuts. And they’re only 2200 this week…

MIN @ NYG

Over/Under 43.5     MIN – 5.5

I can tell you before I look at any numbers that Kirk Cousins is going to throw the heck out of the football this week. After all of the media chaos surrounding his poor passing performances so far this year, if he doesn’t want to lose all respect from his WR corps, he’s going to throw the ball a lot in this game, and especially to Thielen and Diggs. Dalvin Cook is a stud but this shouldn’t be his game this week. I like Cousins at 5300 to hit 20ish fpts this week and I like Adam Thielen helping him get there. I think Diggs will have a decent game but he played well last week and he’s consistently inconsistent. That ball is going to fly, I’m telling you, especially in the RZ.

The Giants should have the ball kicked to them quite a bit in this game. MIN is a tough defense though. The target volume should be there for guys like Engram and Sterling Shepard but I don’t expect the receptions to be as high as we need them to be. For future reference, keep an eye out for Golden Tate to start for the Giants this week in his first game of the season, coming off of suspension for fertility meds. He still has a little fire left in him against the right opponents later on this season.

The line has MIN by -5.5 and I definitely have the over on that. 

CHI @ OAK

Over/Under 40.5     CHI – 5

This game is disgusting. Why is that? Low point total. 2 bad offenses. The cherry on top is that it’s playing in London and that generally results in an abnormally low game total regardless of who is playing. Obviously the CHI defense is always in play, against David ‘intercept-me’ Carr, the D should have a floor of 10 fpts. On the offensive side of the ball for the Bears, they’re running out their backup QB to uphold an offensive scheme with no ability to accentuate the strengths of its personnel. 

The Raiders offense has a nice funnel to it and under normal circumstances Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller and a sprinkle of Tyrell Williams are good additions to your player pool, but not against the Dominant Bears D. 

If any game this week ends with a score of 6 to 3, this is it. The CHI D is a low end cash play, but they’re too expensive at 3800 and it should just be a sluggish game without enough opportunities for interceptions and sacks. Jacobs will get bottled up and Carr will spend the afternoon throwing it away. If you could get points for punters, this is the moment we’ve all been waiting for. I have no one in this game.

NYJ @ PHI

Over/Under 43.5     PHI -14

The NY Jets have scored 1 offensive TD in total in the first 4 weeks of the season and they’ve allowed their opponents to score points in the RZ in each of their last 51 straight trips to the area. PHI should win this game easily as the 14 point spread suggests and there’s not too much fantasy goodness to pull out of this matchup. Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard split the backfield and other than Howard’s solid week 4 performance, neither parts of the duo get enough volume to hit value. On a turbo slate i’d be willing to play Jordan Howard to stumble into the endzone for a score or two but there’s so much value elsewhere on the board at other positions. Howard certainly isn’t a terrible play though, just probably unnecessary with the value at other positions on the slate. Zach Ertz hasn’t scored a TD all year thus far and I’d be very surprised if he gets through this week’s game without ending that TD-less streak. He should score one and depending on how long the game stays close, he could score a couple of TDs. Major blowout risk for sure, but if you’re paying up for TE this week, Ertz is going to get you a TD from the position at the least. If he doesn’t score the first 2 TDs, I don’t think the team will ask him to do much once the Eagles gather themselves a lead. 

On the Jets side of the ball: Crickets. The backup QB Falk just isn’t ready to manage an offense. The Philadelphia Eagles D is dead last in passing yards given up so far this season but they’ve also played Aaron Rodgers, Matt Stafford and Matt Ryan, all of whom are experienced starting QBs in generally passhappy offenses…throwing to Adams, Golladay and Julio will certainly amplify any passing yard numbers against a defense. A lot of the industry is talking up Robby Anderson, the NYJ WR1 at a favorable 4500 pricetag on DK. He just can’t throw the ball to himself. He’s a very VERY deep GPP play, but you gotta be playing a ton of rosters to even consider this dude in this situation. 

Overall, this game isn’t necessarily a breeding ground for fantasy goodness. Maybe the Philly D is a consideration. However, if you’re trying to decide who to draft from this game, you should probably make better decisions. 

BAL @ PIT

Over/Under 44 BAL -3.5

The BAL Ravens are in for a treat this weekend with an opportunity to play against the chameleon-like offense of the Steelers. The Ravens D has given up 73 points combined over their last 2 games and look to right the ship this week against a rookie backup QB. The Steelers offense pulled out the wildcat formation often last week to pull out a win and the Steelers coaching staff look to do the same again this week along with any other witchcraft they can devise to give themselves a chance against the high powered offense of the Ravens. BAL has the most yards per game in the league going against a poor PIT defense. It’s really hard to determine whether the PIT coaching staff is going to try to sell out to defend the run with their current sense of urgency knowing that its the BAL strength. That’s my guess. I think Lamar Jackson, WR1 Hollywood Brown and TE1 Mark Andrews are going to do a lot in this game while the Steelers put pressure at the line to slow down Mark Ingram, especially with the PIT pass defense near last in the league. Ingram will still get the goal line work, even though BAL LOVES to pass it to Mark Andrews in the RZ as often as possible. Andrews by the ways is averaging 8 Targets per game! And if BAL gets a decent lead, which is very possible, Ingram should get plenty of carries in the second half. 

On the PIT side of the ball, we know Conner is hampered by an ankle injury but still getting targets. RB2 Jaylen Samuels took a lot of direct snaps last week in the PIT win and it would be very surprising if he didn’t get a similar workload this week. He had 10 rushing attempts and 8 Targets last week, which is pretty solid for a 4100 high usage back. QB Mason Rudolph only had 28 passing attempts last week and the depth of target was very close range so it looks like his training wheels are still on. With Samuels in the mix, I don’t like the QB or the WR/TE staff on the Steelers. We’ll need to see how the team gameplans over the next game or two to get an idea of how much change the Steelers are willing to make to their offensive attack. The only Steeler I like is 4100 Jaylen Samuels, and it’s hard to say if last week’s gameplan remains the same for him. His pricetag keeps him in the player pool.

BUF @ TEN

Over/Under 39.5 TEN – 3

This game might be lower scoring than my grandma in a bikini contest. The BUF defense is excellent! They were less than a TD away from beating the all mighty Patriots last week and kept that high-fired offense to 16 points. Mariota hasn’t gotten picked off yet, but that’s certainly going to happen sooner rather than later. He was sacked 17 times in the first 3 weeks and kept his jersey clean all last week, so either his offensive line just became twice as good or he’s about to get hit again. I wish BUF had a better pass rush. They have excellent pass coverage but they don’t get to the QB often enough. I kinda like the BUF D here since they do a great job of containing the run game and disguising pass coverage, forcing QBs into some poorly advised throws. Luckily for them, Mariota is very experienced with making poorly advised throws. I could see a couple sacks, a pick or two and maybe even fumble recovery, all while holding the Titans to under 2 TDs. I like the BUF D in this contest. 

BUFs QB is still young and throws the ball to the other team a little more than he should. He’s got a bright future ahead of him but he needs the right situation to reach a ceiling game and it’s hard to expect that against a top half of the league in Rushing and Pass Defense. I’ve been playing a lot of Cole Beasley so far this season but his price is creeping up higher than I want for a guy who needs a lot of targets to hit value. His depth of target is poor, they don’t look to him in the RZ and his QB doesn’t have the accuracy yet. If I don’t like Beasley on the BUF side of the ball i’m not going to like much of anyone. The only player on this team I’m going to get in the player pool is TE Dawson Knox. His usage is slowly creeping up and at 3100 and a QB who could use more check downs in his life to keep from hitting the wrong jerseys, yeah, I like Knox at his price. He’ll be super low owned and if he gets another 3 catches like he has the last 2 weeks and a TD, he’ll be a valuable asset that allows you to get the expensive guy in the rest of your lineup slots. I’m not too sure this is his 20 fpts breakout week, but it’s coming and until further notice I’ll be waiting at the station for the Knox train to come in.

On the TEN side of the ball, they’re going to want to run, it’s not going to work and Mariota is going to throw the ball into the crowd and at times throw it to BUF. It’s such a low scoring game, I don’t expect much out of the TEN offense. Now the TEN defense on the other hand could easily get a pick or two and stay toe to toe with their opposing defense. One QB is young, one QB is bad, this is a game to mainly pick defenses. You just have to decide which QB is going to throw the most picks and who is most likely to forget to take care of the football. 

NE @ WAS

Over/Under 42 NE – 15.5

One thing I appreciate about the NE offense is nothing. They are so unpredictable in literally every respect. That’s probably what makes them so good; you can never be sure how they’re going to try to score each week or who they’re even going to try to score with. With most other teams an offense has a preferred method and target that they want to score with. They’ll deviate depending on the defensive looks, but they always have a preference. Brady and co. have no preference, its like they draw target volume out of a hat each week and run with it. With RB1.5 Rex Burkhead out of the game today, Sony Michel and James White should get plenty of opportunities to exceed their value. Washington has the 4th worst rush defense in the league, giving up 147.5 yards per game. Michel has struggled mightily so far this season and it almost feels like scratching a chalkboard to click him into a lineup. He had 17 carries last week, for 63 yards against a very solid Bills D and 9 carries the week prior. With a few more carries pushed to him from Burkhead, this is the week he should break out. He should have 100+ yards rushing and 2 TDs in this game. Now, will NE give him that opportunity remains to be seen. If he gets that 17 to 20 carries that he should, then this is his week to shine. RB2 James White gets soo much work in the passing game that he easily could be the NE RB to score the points this week. Traditionally White gets used more often in higher scoring affairs and Michel controls the clock in lower scoring team performances but who knows. I like Michel, I really do, and I kinda like White where I don’t have Michel in lineups. The industry has been talking up Gordon and Dorsett but do they really need to do anything in this game? No. The Patriots should win this handedly on the back of Michel. 

On the Washington side of the ball, they pick a QB yet or they still working on it? When asked about who he’s choosing to play at QB this week between Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins and Colt McCoy, coach Gruden said “In my mind I have a pretty good plan, contrary to belief.”  Any of those 3 are not going to lend any confidence to the offense playing against the #1 defense in the league. The only player who might see a lot of usage throughout the game is RB2 Chris Thompson. He’s got a floor so far of 10 fpts this season and he’s fairly gamescript-independent. The gamescript is going to be losing so the Redskins should opt to keep AP healthy for next week and have Thompson on the field for quick outlet passes from whatever QB Washington decides upon, which right now is Colt McCoy. Patriots Defense and Sony Michel should be your only plays from this game. 4300 for a defense is so expensive, but NE is in at least a 4300 situation. *Sneaky play alert: WAS TE Jeremy Sprinkle, 2500. It doesn’t help that the QB situation is so unstable but Sprinkle is the only TE on the WAS side of the ball that has seen snaps this season while he moves from 3rd string to 1st string due to injuries ahead of him. He’s got great hands for a player his size and doesnt have the best acceleration but once he gets going he’s a force to get to the ground. Could he score a garbage time TD in the 4th against 4th string Pats defense? You better believe it. He should be a security blanket for the WAS QBs and as the only TE on the team right now who has seen the field, 4 to 6 catches should be the floor and if he scores the one TD for the Redskins which is possible too, he’s easily 5X- ing that bare min. pricetag.

DEN @ LAC

Over/Under 44.5 LAC -6

Oh boy, DEN is coming in winless so far this season. Their QB Flacco is not good and they have a tough test against an underperforming LAC Defense. Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are primed to sack the heck out of Flacco in this one. The DEN ground game has a couple of decent backs in Lindsay and Freeman but they’re facing a good rush defense this week. Both the DEN and LAC pass defense are top 11 in the league so DEN doesn’t even have much room downfield to target. WR1 and WR2 Sanders and Sutton are cheap at about 5k but again they just don’t have a great matchup. DEN TE Noah Fant might be a nice low owned play from this game; at 2800 he’s getting about 4 targets a game and scored his first TD last week. He’d be a reach, but the TE position is tough this week, so I’m going to add him in the player pool for emergency situations.The hardest thing to project for this game is the RB share in the LAC backfield. Gordon was active last week and didn’t get on the field. The Chargers coach said that Gordon is certainly playing this week but is going to be very much limited. What does that mean for Ekeler? It’s very hard to say. They’re playing against the 3rd worst rush defense in the league and if Austin Ekeler sees 70 to 75% of the snaps, at 6700 he very well could exceed 3X of that pricetag nearing 100 yards and a pair of TDs. I don’t know how much of him I’m going to have, but he’s certainly a solid GPP consideration. He’s good. The plan for the LAC offense in this game should be to get the backfield organized and get Gordon back in the swing of things. We’ll find out in this one if the rift between him and management is actually subsiding. Keenan Allen is always a stud, but he’s playing against a top 5 pass defense this week and he doesn’t really need to do that much in this one. I like the LAC defense a lot, and a sprinkle of Austin Ekeler and Noah Fant is about all else I’ll grab from this game. This game will tell us a lot about the LAC squad moving forward.

GB @ DAL

Over/Under 47 DAL -3.5

I like the under in this game. The Packers are without their all world WR1 Davante Adams and will have to rely on Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison in the passing game. Neither of which inspire too much confidence in the Packers offense. Jimmy Graham finally had a great performance last week. We all knew it was coming but it’s hard to say whether its an anomaly or he’s actually broken out of his slump. This week he’s playing against a DAL team that ranks 4th worst against defending Tight Ends and with the Adams injury, Graham is my favorite play on the GB side, in fact he’s the only play. The rest of the DAL defense has been good this season overall. They’re not the best option probably, but they’re a player pool option with Adams out, for sure. 

On the DAL Side of the ball, Zeke Elliott is in a great spot this week against a Packers D that gives up 142.2 yards rushing per game. He should see a ton of snaps and targets as usual. He’s got a great price at 8300 and he should be fire regardless of how well the Packers offense plays. Prescott has a tough matchup along with his WR teammates as GB has done an excellent job of solidifying their secondary. This should be a Zeke game and although I don’t think either team scores many points, he should fall into the endzone a couple of times before it’s over. 

Good luck in week 5!

————————————————————–

NFL DFS 2019 – Week 4 – 092919

CLE @ BAL

Over/Under 45 BAL -7

I don’t understand this line, BAL by 7. The 45 points seems low unless Vegas thinks that BAL is going to win 35 to 10. BAL has played exceptional so far this year and lost to THE KC Chiefs by 5. A TD away from beating the all powerful Chiefs. And Cleveland has scored 29 points total in their first 3 games combined, 2 of which were losses, and their one win coming against the lowly Jets. BAL scored 28 against the chiefs. CLE CBs Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams and S Morgan Burnett are all questionable and so Lamar Jackson even on an average day should be able to get Marquis Brown plenty of great looks. The Ravens Defense is top notch too, so without injuries to any of their star players, BAL should win this game by at least 2 TDs I like Lamar and Hollywood Marquis Brown to do well. In this matchup, I don’t like anyone on the CLE side of the ball.

CAR @ HOU

Over/Under 47.5 HOU -4

Although HOU is favored by vegas in this game by 4, the eye test says CAR should take this game. Young QB Kyle Allen had an excellent start to the season with 3 TDs, even though he played against a trash secondary last week. The HOU defense is barely better in opponents passing yards per game than the ARI team CAR played last week. I like DJ Moore in a bounce back spot and Greg Olsen again this week. Olsen has a great target floor so far this season. On the HOU offensive side of the ball Will Fuller should be in for a big game. Hopkins is always a decent play because of the volume. I’m probably just going to have members of the CAR offense in this game and Fuller at most.

LAC @ MIA

Over/Under 44.5 LAC -14.5

Another week that the Dolphins are still in the league, what a blessing for them. The line is huge, 14.5 and LAC should easily breeze past that. Ekeler is REALLY expensive and he should be the most motivated back in the league right now with Melvin Gordon set to take the reins back starting next week. The problem is that he’s SOOO expensive. Can he justify that 8k pricetag, yes. Especially against a poor Miami team? That would certainly help him. The LAC RB2 is out and there are rumblings that Melvin Gordon has decided that he has time in his busy life to play this game and just might serve as RB2 this week until he’s back on top next week. Coaching staff hinted that their 4th string RB Pope is going to play RB2 snaps but…that sounds more like a pissing contest response than trying to win a game or more importantly giving your RB1 a good chance to get his legs back underneath him against an easy opponent. That is a major concern. It’s questionable if Gordon plays. If he plays, do you want Ekeler? If Gordon plays, then LAC is going to want to see him on the field and it’ll probably be more of a 70/30 split. It’s tough to pay a priced up guy who’s about to lose volume. Ekeler is good. He’s gotta be motivated, he’s just in a tough spot at his current price. If you want him, take him. I won’t have any, and if Gordon doesn’t play, Ekeler should get close if not exceed value, but if Gordon takes that 25 to 35 percent of snaps that the RB2 role has been taking on then he might not workout as well as you might like. MIA gives it up to the top targets on each team, so Keenan Allen could have a big week this week as well. The problem with teams that are this bad is that its hard to guess how their opponents score, cause it literally could be anyone at any position, with relative ease. Keenan Allen is probably due for 10 targets, and he’ll probably catch one in the Endzone, that’s probably his floor – 8 catches and a TD, especially since his WR2 is out with an injury. I’m not sure they need him to do much more than that. LAC should want to get reps for the rest of the offense that really needs to get going like Inman who is their WR2 in this game and then of course Gordon. If you get your points in before LAC starts coasting, you’ll be golden. If not, good luck to you sir. 

On the other side of the ball, everyone sucks, we know this, but what the Dolphins have needed 3 games to realize is that they still have incentive bonuses that they want to obtain. At least through the rest of the first half of the season where their incentive metrics still seem manageable, individual players might put in more effort than they have so far. The MIA QBs are terrible, the running backs are not good and the only guy you want to think about is Preston Williams, their WR1. He’s good. He’s really good. He smells the incentive cash and i think he’s already promised a cut to the QB squad because they’re peppering him with targets. He’s worth a shot in a GPP, at 3900, that’s a really solid price for a WR1 who got 12 targets last week. I kinda think he gets a TD this week. Their one TD.

Recap: Keenan Allen and Chargers D.

NE @ BUF

Over/Under 42.5 NE -7

Vegas is drunk. NE by only 7 points against Buffalo? You sir, are out of order. NE offense is too solid from every angle. Think about this, their starting RB1 is struggling and they’ve game-planned around it to make it a non-issue. Rex Burkhead is playing excellent but he’s questionable and James White who is going to take some of his carries/targets is back and ready for action this week. 4900 for White is kinda pricey for a backup RB who may not need to do too much. He should get some decent goal line opportunities.The BUF run D is pretty good so it’s hard to say what his role looks like going in. I like a combination of Edelman and Gordon to do all the damage. One of those should score a couple of TDs and based on RZ looks, it could be either as they’re both tied at 4 each (followed by James White with 3 – and he missed a week). 

On the BUF side, the young QB Allen is growing before our very eyes. The NE defensive coordinator is about to blow his freakin mind, but he’s started off well at least. I’m a huge Beasley fan and I like to roster him often because the volume is there and he’s due for a TD, but I don’t think this is the week. He’ll probably have 7 catches for 50ish yards. 

This point total is sooo low. 3rd lowest. I won’t touch anything in this game other than Edelman/Gordon and the NE Defense.

TEN @ ATL

Over/Under 46 ATL -3.5

I think this is a true pick-em game. TEN has a punishing run game, ATL has a poor run defense. Both passing defenses are actually in the Top 10 of least passing yards allowed per game. But ATL has Julio and some pretty decent pieces around him that can help keep the double teams to a minimum. On the TEN side, I kinda like Derrick Henry coming off a poor game, because the Titans should try to keep the ball out of the hands of the ATL offense and pound the rock. Delanie Walker is the play though. He’s got 4x more RZ looks than anyone else on the offense and he’s playing well. On the ATL side, I like Julio in this game, and Definitely Calvin Ridley. Ridley who had a terrible week 3. The point total is middle of the line and i think either ATL big time receiver could do well, its just I don’t think either in a spot to play well Enough to get the points you need. Both probably hover at or around 20 fpts with a TD each and so so yards. I like Walker.

OAK @ IND

Over/Under 45.5 IND -7

IND may be without receiver Ty Hilton who left last week early and hasn’t practiced at all this week. If so then Mack gets plenty of carries and Ebron or Doyle has a good game. Doyle played on 69% of the snaps last week vs %51 for Ebron so I like Doyle to do a little better. The problem with this offense is that if Ty misses, the rest of their receiving corps is at best mediocre and the only trustworthy receivers are their two Tight Ends. So they’d probably both get more snaps in 2 TE sets which is going to stack the box for Mack to run through much less spacing. Without Hilton, I don’t like the IND offense much and I don’t really like this game. Cain or Campbell or Pascal on the IND receivers list could do well, but they literally haven’t shown a thing yet and there’s been opportunity for one of those dudes to secure the WR2 spot. 

On the OAK side, Waller is going to get the ball and so should Ty Williams. I like these two if i’m going to play this game. Williams is expensive at 5700 and Waller at 5200 is pricey as well. Either could do well, but its hard to say. Waller is great this year, looks like a stud TE the league will enjoy for years to come but today it kinda feels like drafting him would be buying high when he’s due for a down game. If you pick him, I get it. Great talent. I won’t have too much of him, but he has the opportunity.

WAS @ NYG

Over/Under 49 NYG -3

WAS played Monday night so the Giants had one more day to rest and gameplan. AP has an opportunity to have more than the 12 carries he saw in week 3, but not sure its enough to be too relevant. WR1 Terry McLaurin has a hamstring issue that will likely limit him in the game. Both Tre Quinn and Paul Richardson stand to capitalize on a few more targets heading their way. The NYG defense isn’t great so one or both of those guys could do well. 

On the NYG offensive side of the ball, the industry is talking up Wayne Gallman with Barkley out this week. The only problem with Gallman is that he’s not good at all. But that’s the only problem at least. Both Sterling Shepard and Engram should have a ton of volume and I kinda think that little Daniel Jones sneaks in for another TD this week. I kinda like the idea of stacking this game because its a little sneaky and the target shares seem so condensed. A solid stack of 5300 Daniel Jones, Sterling Shepard  (5800) and run it back with 3700 Paul Richardson, seems pretty good. Tre Quinn at 3000 could easily sneak into the stack and surpass value if the right chain of events occurs.

KC @ DET

Over/Under 55 KC -6.5

This game has the highest total on the board. We have to have a piece of this game. KC is incredible on the offensive side of the ball so Mahomes is always a good pick. I think KC wins by more than the 6.5 line with Watkins playing awesome and Kelce following close behind with his RZ target market share boosting him. 

DET gets to go against a poor KC defense so the pillars of that offense could pretty well also. A lot of people are talking up Matt Stafford and he’s an OK play. I don’t think he’s very good as a player in general so I won’t have him at all but I do like Golladay to get a ton of targets and a sprinkle of Kerryon Johnson. I wish Kerryon got more catches in the backfield, he’s good enough to make things happen with those. Hockenson is due for a bounce back but he only plays 66% of the snaps last week and i’m not sure that DET has decided what his role is. At 3300 he’s an intriguing GPP play though. 

Mahomes. Watkins. Kerryon. Golladay. And a sprinkle of TJ Hockenson.

TB @ LAR

Over/Under 49 LAR -9.5

This game is tied for the second highest game total on the slate. Any game with a projected total nearing 50 points is certainly one we want to target. The TB offense is finding its way to score but not yet how to win. Winston is always boom or bust, even though he has one of the best set of receivers in the league. OJ Howard is due for a bounce back game and Mike Evans with 15 targets last week is obviously who they want to receive the ball. Chris Godwin is emerging this year but I think Evans is going to take some of his early high target share. 

On the Rams side of the ball, the 9.5 favorited Rams, I like Kupp, it seems like they’re really trying to get the ball in his hands at all spots on the field. Woods is due for a bounce back game as well. I’m not too big of a fan of Cooks this week, but I do like Woods and Kupp

SEA @ ARI

Over/under 48 SEA -5

High total game. Russell Wilson is definitely chalk at 6100  As is TE Will Dissley at 3600 and Lockett at 6300. He had 14 targets last week and ARI gave up 12 targets to the same WR1 position last week, so he’s in position. I kinda feel like drafting Wilson is chasing his 406 yards from last week but that price is still pretty good. I can’t imagine a situation where he doesnt get you 25 points. 

On the other side of the ball, David Johnson has a good opportunity to do well, 6800 is pretty solid if he maintains the volume in carries and targets and gets in for a TD. Kirk and Fitzgerald get such a high volume that it’s hard not to have them in the player pool priced in at 5100 and 5600 respectively. At this point, either one of them could get WR1 snaps in any given week. The SEA pass defense concerns me though against a young QB. I like Kyler Murray in general, just not in this game.

MIN @ CHI

Over/Under 38 CHI -1.5

I like MIN to win this game. CHI played Monday so they have one less day to rest and I think the MIN offense is that much better than the CHI offense despite how good the CHI D is. This is one of the lowest totals on the board, and I like the underdog so its hard to even touch a defense here, unless I go with MIN

The offensive scheme for the MIN offense is going to hit a roadblock today when the CHI pass defense decreases the effectiveness of Dalvin Cook. at least on the ground. He should get a lot of targets in the air, I’d probably expect somewhere around 10. I like Thielen for the easy targets too. I’m completely off of Diggs, i think CHI contains him. 

The CHI offense isn’t good, and a lot of that has to do with Trubisky still making rookie mistakes. I think Trey Burton is the only guy on this side of the ball that stands to have a good day. Cook is going to be less effective in the ground game yardage wise but he’s still going to run the clock for MIN and when CHI does have the ball on the offense I just expect Trubisky to rush through his progressions against a stout MIN passing defense and then hit the TE for the easy completions. The game total is too low for me to expect too much out of Burton or anyone else for that matter. I’m going to have Burton and Thielen in my player pool but probably won’t use too much of them.

JAC @ DEN

Over/Under 37.5 DEN -3

Lowest point total of the week projection. I think JAC plays well though. I like Fournette and I like the idea of stacking him with the JAC Defense. He’s getting a ton of carries and targets too! Westbrook is due for a 100 yard performance and this might be just the spot. 

I don’t like DEN at all in this game.

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NFL DFS 2019 – Week 3 – 092219

 

BAL @ KC

Over/Under 52 KC -5.5

WEATHER – This game should be very wet. That means the point total should reduce and things will slow down all the way around. I’ll still keep everyone in my player pool but I’ll take the weather into consideration. 

This game has the highest point total on the slate. Baltimore has a great rush defense. Held opposing teams to 13 yards and 20 yards in the first two weeks. As a result, tons of passing yards for the opposition. Baltimore’s numbers on both sides of the ball have looked stellar so far, leading the league in rushing stats, and have put up a ton of other eye popping numbers, but they’ve also only played ARI and MIA, who are terrible. The KC defense is not good and its easy to see why the BAL offense is going to be a popular stack this week. Lamar Jackson should do well. Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown are his favorite targets by a significant margin. You’d assume that they’re going to want to pound the rock with Mark Ingram/Gus Edwards but if they get behind against this KC team, the RB position does not catch many passes at all so they’ll be blocking from then on out. 

The KC backfield is having injury issues, starter Damien Williams is out, RB2 McCoy is questionable, with an ankle issue but likely to play. And their RB lineup after that is very poor. The KC offense is going to take them as far as the passing game takes them this week. TE Travis Kelce has to be chalk at 7100. Pat Mahomes is too expensive at 7600. Sammy Watkins at 6800 looks like the play, 13 targets last week and he’s going to play in the slot a bunch for quick passes for Mahomes when Kelce is doubled and the Ravens defense is barreling down on him.

NYJ @ NE

Over/Under 43 NE -21

The Jets only scored 3 points against the Cleveland Browns last week, so this matchup is not going to go well for them going against a very hot NE Patriots defense who shut out its last opponent. The Jets kept Chubb and the run game of CLE to 62 yards last week on 18 carries which certainly is respectable, but they allowed 4 passes to the RB1 for 36 yards. The RB passing game is a huge strength for the NE offense with the likes of Rex Burkhead and James White. Sony Michel is not involved in the passing game but as we saw last week, he crosses the 20 carry mark with a lead. The NE offensive scheme was different last week with AB in the mix, but with him gone, there should be a good mix of Josh Gordon and Edelman carrying the pass offense. Regardless, NE is going to dominate on both sides of the ball and we can expect Michel to see a lot of carries. A lot of people like Phillip Dorsett because he’s so cheap and the offense is a little injury depleted. I’ll add him to the player pool, but I probably won’t play him.

CIN @ BUF

Over/Under 44 BUF -6

CIN is throwing the ball well and have missed out on scoring even more points due to penalties that they should have cleaned up this week and onward. Their RB game is the worst in the league so Dalton is going to have to pull it together this week if they want a chance. Tyler Boyd and John Ross so far have made up the entire receiving corps so we can expect that to continue in Week 3. This game is much better suited for Tyler Boyd to play well. On the Buffalo side of the ball, any RB1 that’s not Frank Gore would smash in this spot. He gets the carries, he’s just a shell of his old self. I think he’ll do well, but not well enough for his points to matter. If Josh Allen gets some carries, he could have a solid game. I like Boyd and I like John Brown on the other side. Because of the CIN deficiencies in the run game I think BUF wins by more than the 6 expected of them and overall its probably going to be a fairly boring game as we watch Gore bumbling about.

OAK @ MIN

Over/Under 43.5 MIN -8.5 

Low point total, high spread, so first thought on deck is the MIN Defense and the RB1 for the favorite MIN. Dalvin Cook has been on fire so far this season and this should continue in Week 3. The Defense is generally pretty good and they’re playing against a QB who generally has interception issues so this could be a good spot for them as well. I don’t like playing an underdog offense unless I think they’re going to win the game and unfortunately I don’t expect them to pull the W out this week. Cook should get carries, Diggs for a TD and the MIN Defense is going to double Tyrell and that’s about all there will be to it. Darren Waller might get a ton of targets, but that’s about the only guy I’d even consider on the OAK side. He’s already to 4100 so that’s not my favorite play at the position but he’s usable no doubt.

ATL @ IND

Over/Under 47 IND -2

This is a very popular game to stack. Julio is on a TD streak and he can’t throw the ball to himself, although he’d probably be more accurate than his QB Matt Ryan. The TD share for the ATL offense is massively and exclusively owned by Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones. Ridley is a pretty cheap 5300 with nice TD upside. Julio is going to be very popular so i’ll add him to the player pool but I’m not sure i’ll have him in many spots. The ATL defense is noticeably bad but so is the IND offense. They’ll try to control the clock with Mack (who is questionable) but as soon as ATL gets a lead Brissett is going to make mistakes and definitely have an interception or 2 while trying to over-target Hilton. If you can find a prop bet for Brissett interceptions, i’d put money on at least 1. Ryan will probably do the same and its just going to be an ugly QB display on both sides. Targets a plenty though, so either Ridley or Julio could go off. Also, underdog ATL should win this game.

DEN @ GB

Over/Under 42.5 GB -8

WEATHER – It’s going to rain a good bit during this one so i’m going to downgrade the GB Defense

DEN had a tough matchup against a very stout CHI defense and the GB defense looks surprisingly good in their own right, at least in the secondary. Before diving into the stats, GB Defense is going to be a popular play in this game and for good reason. The Denver offense is already bad and this GB pass defense should make them look even worse. The Denver backfield is in a two person split, so its hard to trust either of them. Emmanuel Sanders leads in the RZ targets for the team followed closely by Courtland Sutton. The rest of the offense has far fewer targets in the RZ. In Week 2, Denver played against a terrible Bears offense. They can’t stop a WR1 and they can’t stop an RB1 in the RZ. The GB offense should see Aaron Jones light the way and Davante Adams should have a field day. I could easily see 4 TDs combined out of both of those 2. Those two are about all I’d touch from this game with maybe a sprinkle of Royce Freeman. He’s just so cheap and we may be a game early, but eventually he should out-touch Lindsay. He’s just playing better. Emmanuel Sanders will be an easy pick for the rest of the drafters because he has such a huge target volume, but the GB secondary is going to do a great job of him. I imagine Sutton gets free for a TD on maybe 4 targets if things break just right. But I think the opportunity for a DEN TD is clearly better for $4400 Royce Freeman.

DET @ PHI

Over/Under 45.5 PHI -5

DET played a poor game against an average LAC defense last week, even though they won. I may be going out on a limb here, but for the tools he has, QB Matthew Stafford just isn’t that good. Kenny Golladay on the other hand has emerged as one of the top WR1s in the league. That dude is good. Also, Kerryon Johnson is in a GREAT spot. If Detroit gets up he should get plenty of carries and if DET gets down he should get targets in the backfield. The PHI offense is either depleted or bad, or both. I like Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz on the offensive side of the ball because they’re pretty much the only viable options with the injuries. DET should win this game.

MIA @ DAL

Over/Under 47 DAL -22.5

MIA could be the worst team of the last 10 years. They’re very bad and have no motivation to do more than step on the field as they are loudly tanking. Dallas will easily blow out this team. The only difficult part is predicting how long the Dallas starters stay on the field. Zeke will always be in play going forward but I don’t trust that he plays much more after the first half. He should very likely get the 100 yard bonus in the first half. Randall Cobb is a good play with Gallup out, I’m sure they want to keep him involved in the passing game. Cooper could go off at any time. But who gets the snaps and why in the world would they get that much work in this kind of game?

CAR @ ARI

Over/Under 44.5 ARI -2

The over on this game is getting pretty talked up. I could see it. With Newton out, Kyle Allen has something to prove and he’s fortunate to have the best pass catching back in the league to help him along. The WRs on CAR are good. Allen is also probably a better passer than Cam. The ARI rush defense has looked good so far, but they haven’t played against a high quality RB1 until this week. We should expect Christian McCaffrey to be an easy security blanket for Kyle Allen this week. Greg Olsen should play a huge role too. DJ Moore would be a perfect 3rd member of an Allen, Olsen, Moore stack or an Allen, McCaffrey, Moore stack. ARI is the favorite and Kyler Murray is still looking for his first NFL win. On the other side of the ball Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald make up a great stack. Any of those 3 would be great picks on their own as well.

NYG @ TB

Over/Under 48 TB -6

The total seems a lot higher than it should be. Smarter eyes than mine agree with that too. TB defense is underrated and they’re playing against a rookie QB. The TB defense should definitely be in play. Jameis Winston needs to play well in this game in the worst way. He really needs to build up some confidence because he’s started the season terribly. Mike Evans and OJ Howard are in the exact same boat. Chris Godwin appears to be the easy play in this game, but I don’t think he needs this game as much as the other 3 dudes. Could be a nice stack to run back with Evan Engram.

HOU @ LAC

Over/Under 49 LAC -3

This one has one of the highest point totals on the board. AND it’s basically a pick-em with the home team kindly spotted the 3 point spread. Hopkins should get some good looks if the HOU line can hold up. That’s the problem with the Texans offense, the O Line just can’t give Watson a reasonable amount of time to go through his progressions. Deandre Hopkins is my only HOU guy from this game. The LAC stack looks real nice – Phillip Rivers, chalky Austin Ekeler, and even chalkier Keenan Allen. All of these guys in their own right are solid plays.

NO @ SEA

Over/Under 44.5 SEA -4

The NO offense and Teddy Bridgewater aren’t quite ready for each other yet. Michael Thomas has zero red zone targets so far in 2 games; he was one of the leaders in this metric last year, so that’s pretty surprising. The newly promoted QB is very inaccurate as a passer, so the only offensive player I feel good about is Jared Cook who he could pepper with easy check downs. The only guy on the SEA side of the ball I like his DK Metcalf who should get solid looks on quick slants. SEA Carson fumbled last week and his coach is notoriously willing to reduce snaps of an RB with fumbling issues. We’ll have to see how his snap share materializes in this game before we can trust the volume again.

PIT @ SF

Over/Under 43 SF -6.5

This is a very low scoring contest expectation and as a result, we probably don’t want to target it too much. PIT is playing their backup QB Rudolph and James Conner is still recovering from a slight knee injury. Even though Conner plays Juju is probably the only play from the PIT side of the ball, because his volume is so heavy. The SF backfield has a good matchup but the timeshare annoyingly takes us off that position. Who gets the most touches, yards, TDS and targets in the back field will likely be a combination of guys, thus very much reducing their fantasy upside. Deebo Samuel is an ok pick if you like living on the edge. I don’t plan on playing anyone from this game. 

Good Luck!

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NFL DFS 2019 – Week 2 – 091519

ARI @ BAL

Over/Under 47 BAL -13

The Miami Dolphins were so bad in their game against Baltimore that it’s hard to gain any info from the game. Sure the Baltimore defense is good, but they can’t possibly be as great as that MIA team made them appear. This game has been talked about on every betting show this week with some very divided opinions: Some are positive that BAL wins by more than 13 and the other side of the room is positive that ARI covers the spread. Its certainly the most divisive game of the week. I feel good about Mark Andrews and strangely good about Marquise Hollywood Brown doing well. Christian Kirk or Fitzgerald are the only guys I feel good even considering, but I’m not sure I’ll touch them. One thing to note is that BAL blitzes heavy and Kyler Murray is the perfect QB with enough athleticism to avoid the rush. He may not be experienced enough to have the decision-making sharp enough once he avoids the rush, but if he does, this game could be close. That’s a big IF.

SF @ CIN

Over/Under 45 CIN -1.5

This is kind of a weird game because there’s not much to glean from the SF/Tampa game other than Jameis Winston is terrible and SF only has one legitimate receiver and he’s their TE Kittle. I kinda like the CIN Defense here as weird as that sounds. And I like their offense as well. I havent looked at the Bernard pricing until now…5300…wow…too much. Dalton, Ross and Boyd – these are the only guys to consider from this game and possible the CIN D, because everyone and their mother knows that the ball is going to Kittle.

LAC @ DET

Over/Under 48 LAC -2.5

Austin Ekeler should get a ton of usage in this game. Probably 15 carries and 7 catches is about right. And if they’re up, maybe even more carries and if they’re down, maybe even more catches. Its a great situation for him. Keenan Allen should get PLENTY of looks too. On the other side of the ball. Golladay is the guy who should ball out.

MIN @ GB

Over/Under 44.5 GB -3

Holy crap. MIN threw the ball 12 times last game. That is insane. Scary to take a MIN receiver here if this indicates a new offensive philosophy going forward. Their first game was against the Falcons so obviously they were trying to keep the ball out of passing Matt Ryan’s hands, but thats still pretty nuts. MIN run defense is excellent. Holding all 4 RB of ATL to a total of 73 yards. GB pass defense in the short to midrange is poor so assuming the MIN offense doesn’t plan on running the ball all game again, Adam Thielen should get heavy targets and Dalvin Cook should get a ton of catches on short passes. The MIN offense seems so 2-dimensional with Diggs out, so its hard to expect too much out of it. Diggs is probably going to play in this one so it’ll be a wait and see. Jimmy Graham should have a huge day. Davante Adams should have a huge day and so its possible that Aaron Rodgers does well, since MIN does such a great job at controlling the run, Rodgers is going to be throwing.

JAX @ HOU

Over/Under 43.5 HOU -8.5

Duke Johnson appears to be a good play this week as pass catching backs do well against the JAX defense. Hopkins should also have a big game as he dominates the target share by a lot. Coutee is back and I have no idea what that does to the Texans offense. Possibly takes a target or two away from Hopkins, but he had 13 targets last week, 2 in the Red Zone, if anything the addition of Coutee might help reduce the double coverage for Mr. Hopkins. Dede Westbrook should fair well much like Leonard Fournette. I’m really high on Fournette in general and he should get a TD this week. The total seems really low, i think it should definitely go over the 43.5 implied total. I’m not sure Houston wins by 8.5 either. I like JAX to cover.

NE @ MIA

Over/Under 48 NE -18.5

This game has blowout written in sharpie all over it. It’s going to happen. The Patriots Defense looks like a solid target and Sony Michel should do well if he gets carries. James White might even sneak in a TD or two. AB? Who knows. Josh Gordon? Who knows…Although a lot of smart people are taking Josh Gordon up. Maybe they try to target him a little more while AB learns the playbook and use AB more as a decoy? The offensive scheme for the Patriots will be very difficult to predict. If I were to guess, the patriots get Gordon or AB involved in the passing game early to get to a 14 point lead and then a combination of Michel, White and Burkhead get a lot of reps. Last week Miami’s opponent had 46 carries. Let that sink in. Since Michel had a low week last week, i’d expect he’d get a few more carries so they can help him get some momentum going into week 3.

BUF @ NYG

Over/Under 43.5 BUF -2

Saquon Barkley should get plenty of work as will Sterling Shephard. John Brown, Cole Beasley and Josh Allen Should do well. Vegas has this as a low game total, but I could easily see the scores go above the 43.5 implied total, easily. Both defenses are poor. 
UPDATE: Shephard is in concussion protocol. Might not suit up. Worth checking before game time and there are so many other plays on the board that I wouldn’t even mess with this dude.

SEA @ PIT

Over/Under 46.5 PIT -4

Dang, the Steelers had their doors blown off last week 33 – 3. At least it was the Patriots doing the blowing, we know they’re pretty good. Seattle somehow pulled one out despite a 418 yard passing game from Andy Dalton with a ground game that was basically non-existent. That probably had to do partly with the Mixon injury. Juju Smith-Schuster is due for a big game. Big Ben is due for a big game too but it’s obvious that Moncrief can’t be an effective WR2 and Ben just doesn’t have the same kind of weapons to throw to like in years past. Sometimes you gotta cater to a crazy guy. Also I have no idea what to do with James Conner. He could have a huge game if they get him more involved in the passing game or…he can pass protect a ton in the backfield so that Moncrief can rack up incomplete passes all day. Chris Carson should get a ton of carries and catches (15 carries, 7 targets last game), which will help the PIT passing game. And a lot of people are talking up Tyler Lockett because he basically did nothing last game and he “ran really good routes”. I never get Lockett right, so I won’t go there. Last game PIT game up 13 targets to the opposing team’s WR1 and in this new SEA offense that appears to be DK Metcalf. That’s an awful lot of volume to ignore. Metcalf had about half of those targets last game and he faired really well. I’m not saying he gets 13 but more than 7 is a real possibility if PIT gets up and Wilson has to sling it a little.

IND @ TEN

Over/Under 44.5 TEN -3

In Week 1 Marlon Mack had 25 carries, 174 yards, 1 TD. Beast. This will be a different challenge against a tough Titans team with their own power RB1. Last week TEN allowed a ton of targets to the WR1 so Ty Hilton should be in for his fair share as should the TE1, whoever that is these days Ebron had 3 targets, Doyle had 2, with 1 each in the RZ. What’s weird about the Titans last game is that the number 1 receiver didnt have a target or a catch. It was a 43 to 13 thrashing of the browns so the Titans didnt have to throw much, but not even a single target is crazy. I expect a big positive regression this week for Corey Davis. If they can get Derrick Henry in the passing game, he could have a good week as well. Too bad Dion Lewis had twice as many targets at the position.

DAL @ WAS

Over/Under 46 DAL -4.5

Dallas blew out the Giants in their last game. That’s mostly because the Giants are terrible, but QB Prescott nonetheless played very well. The Dallas Defense looked top notch too. Against the Eagles Case Keenum threw for 380 yards…wow…yes, Case freakin Keenum. Their RB1 got injured so Adrian Peterson should get some carries and Chris Thompson should see a lot of tosses in his direction against the Dallas pass rush. Chris Thompson, Vernon Davis (if Reed doesn’t play), Trey Quinn are all individually on my radar. I have the most faith in Thompson and Trey Quinn for target shares and a sprinkle of Vernon Davis at the right price. On the Dallas side of the ball, I like Zeke Elliott and Randall Cobb. Zeke’s snap count should increase from last week where he had an even split in the backfield with the RB2. And I like Cobb because he had 8 targets last game, with 2 in the Red Zone and Washington gave up 10 targets to the WR2 position. Gallup had a good game last game, but I think he’s fool’s gold to pick this week. He’s young, the consistency will more than likely not be there. Against the Reskins last week, WR1 had 6 targets, now maybe Dak forces the ball to Amari a little more than the Eagles forced it to their WR1, but I got my money on Cobb this week in this game.

KC @ OAK

Over/Under 52 KC -8

Second highest point total on the board, so a game we need to target. Both QBs will get yards and should hit the 300 yard bonus. Won’t play either defense. Derek Carr looked great last week. Also, KC scores so much that OAK should rely less on run game and should get up more targets. I don’t think Josh Jacobs gets enough targets to be a factor this week, but a lot of experts are suggesting otherwise. As a result, he’s technically in my pool of players, but I doubt I’ll use him. Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller should be in line for Plenty of targets. They’re pretty much the entire receiving corps. For the KC side, I like, Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins, Pat Mahomes in that order. Last week Damien Williams had 13 rushes and Lesean McCoy had 10 rushes, and with that timeshare its hard to pinpoint which RB to target so i’ll stay away. Travis Kelce is probably my only KC play.

CHI @ DEN

Over/Under 40.5 CHI -2.5

The Denver defense should blitz often as will the bears so quick outlet targets will be the best for both teams. This is the lowest total on the slate so best bet is on CHI Defense, one of the best in the league. David Montgomery should get plenty of touches, but low pass target volume. Allen Robinson / Tarik Cohen should get 6+ targets. I lean towards Cohen as the quick outlet. Against Chicago, Sanders and Fant should receive highest target share for the team but should still be limited to 7 or so targets with less than 75% catch rate because the QB is not great. Trubisky may have decent rushing upside. Would not surprise me if he has 2 rushing TDs.

NO @ LAR

Over/Under 53 LAR -2.5

In the last game, NO gave up 13 targets to the WR1 (Hopkins) and 5 targets to the pass catching RB1/2 (Duke). No further substantial target shares. Worth noting, they gave up 33 passes, and 25 rushing attempts against. Best to Target a WR#1 and a top 10 pass catching RB1 and QB1 on the Rams. No idea what role Gurley will have going forward, as Malcolm Brown is stealing a lot of his volume and TD equity. Jared Goff is a good target this week and I would expect him to pass it a lot to Robert Woods but Brandin Cooks and Cooper Kupp could easily steal his TD upside. This offense just has too many great receivers to predict who will get the targets at the right time Just a guess, but I feel the best about Jared Goff hitting all of them with targets and Robert Woods squeezing out the pair of TDs. Gut play for sure. Against the Rams we gotta fire up Alvin Kamara again, he’s so dangerous. Michael Thomas had 13 Targets last game, while the next WR had 7. I definitely expect Drew Brees to have his sights on Thomas all game long, with Kamara intermissions interspersed.