NFL

NFL Fantasy 2020 – Draftkings Picks and Game Breakdowns – 11 Game Main Slate – Week 8 – November 1, 2020

IND @ DET

Over/Under 50     IND -2.5

I like Indy in this one and that 2.5 points doesn’t scare me one bit. Indy’s defense is legitimately good and their offense is slowly coming together. The total seems higher than I would have expected. Offensively the Colts are coming together but they’re still not anywhere close to being  a high powered offense. Defensively they can really hold their own, so this is just a weirdly high total. Indy, with the points, and I think you can even take the Under and feel pretty good about it.

IND

Since I like the Colts to pull this one out, I’d generally lean towards drafting the RB to pair with the Indy D and let them ride that clock out together but one side of this is very scary. What is this offense? It wants to be run heavy except their RB1 is probably the most mediocre starting RB in the league. He’s not bad. His numbers are just so bland that you almost need him priced closer to the position min to be excited about playing him. Over the last 2 games Jonathan Taylor is averaging 12 rushing attempts and 3.5 targets. That’s just not enough of a workload to be intriguing. At 6600, there’s no way I’m playing him, even in a plus matchup against a Lions team who gives up the 5th most fpts against the RB position. I think he’s a good runningback, but he needs a heavier workload to be in the realm of consideration.

Philip Rivers had his best game of the season last week against CIN, so I’m certainly not chasing him after that. He’s also leveraging a pretty sad 7/6 TD to INT ratio. Since I don’t like Rivers, the most I’ll consider is a one-off from this offense. 

The Lions give up the 7th highest fpts to the WR position so that’s a good place to start. They’re also giving up the 2nd least fpts to the TE position. This disparity leads credence to the notion that maybe they’re good at covering size but not at covering speed effectively. TY Hilton is fast but I don’t think Hilton and Rivers are even FB friends yet; the targets aren’t there at all. It’s actually sad comparing today Hilton to pre-Rivers Hilton because he used to be good and just looks like a shell of himself this season. You’re going to have to be early if you want to roster Hilton at all this year. He’s going to have a good game at some point this season. He’ll have himself a pair of TDs and a hundred yards, and it’ll be nice because he’ll be at sub 1% ownership. Until that game though, he will absolutely destroy (in a very bad way) all of the rosters he finds himself in until his one breakout game. There is zero floor so I’m steering clear.

As far as the rest of this offense, Marcus Johnson saw 8 targets last week and had over a 100 yards. He comes into this week priced at the 3000 min, so I think he’s going to be the most common guy at his price used as a salary saver. I still don’t expect the ownership to be high enough to worry about. I’m not going to be chasing that performance but there are worse pay downs when you’re making room to stack studs throughout the rest of your lineups. 

If you really feel like you have to play a WR in this offense, the right play is Zach Pascal at 4500. You’ll get ownership leverage and he’s the 2nd WR on the team in targets and first in RZ targets. I don’t recommend playing this dude at all, because he has the same floor as TY Hilton which is almost negative numbers; but objectively I think he’s a better play than Marcus Johnson. 

Philip Rivers likes to throw to his TEs probably because it entails easier throws that are generally less likely to get intercepted. However, as noted previously the Lions are very decent at defending the big fellas at this position. 

This whole offense seems like a stay away. The only part of this Colts team that I like this week and most weeks is the IND Defense. At 3100, that price is perfect. They rank in the top 4 of least fpts given up to their opponents against 3 different positions: 1st against TE, 4th against RB, and 2nd against QB. They rank 15th against WRs, but their level of WR competition has been very poor to start the season so I think that ranking is going to head in the wrong direction in the second week of November when they face the Titans, Packers, Titans, and Texans one after another. Yikes! This week though, I trust Indy against Stafford right now, and taking their beautiful price into consideration, I like them a lot. 

DET

I don’t like the Lions at all in this game. The Colts are going to shut down this offense from every angle and force Stafford into throws he shouldn’t be making. I think they’ll frustrate him and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t throw a couple picks. Specifically because I think Indy will control the clock and take the W in this one, I don’t want any part of Stafford or his backfield mates.

At receiver, I’m still not convinced Marvin Jones is in the league anymore. I’m beginning to become worried about him, he’s been missing for quite some time. Kenny Golladay is the only WR worth rostering from DET and I wouldn’t say he’s a smart play. He’s been awesome in the 4 weeks he’s played this season. I don’t think awesome is even a strong enough word for how consistent he’s been thus far. He’s had no less than 16.2 fpts in any game and he’s had over 100 yards receiving in both of his last 2 games. At 6600, I don’t think the matchup difficulty is baked into his pricetag so I won’t have any shares, but that has more to do with how strongly I feel about the Colts defense and less about any ill will towards the quality of Golladay. That dude is balling out and doing so with a below average QB in a below average offense.

Hockenson at 5300 is overpriced for this matchup. I’m staying far away. Please do the same. 

To recap, I only like the Colts D in this game and subsequently none of the Lions.

PIT @ BAL

Over/Under 46.5     BAL -3.5

Weather: RAIN

Underdog Alert! I like the Steelers to beat the overrated Ravens this week. Straight moneyline, let’s go! This game total is the 3rd lowest on the slate and it feels spot on. Both defenses should shine and both offenses should have moments but not very many individual players will shine above and beyond their pay grades. 

PIT

I don’t like the man Big Ben. He’s a jerk and from every account seems to be difficult to play with. That being said, right now, I like Big Ben the QB. He’s doing a great job trusting in his receivers and putting them in positions to succeed. He’s made rookie Claypool look brilliant and Diontae Johnson look like a bonafide league WR1 talent. Both of these receivers are fine players but I guarantee that the league is talking about them right now because Ben is making it happen. 

This matchup is below average for the QB so I won’t be having any shares, but I’m very much looking forward to drafting him against the Cowboys next week. 

At the RB position, James Conner has been so steady. He’s getting the exact kind of workload you’d want in a runningback. He’s had over 100 yards rushing in 3 of the last 5 games and he’s had a TD in 3 of the last 4. He’s averaging over 3 targets per game so far this season too! Just about every week he’s a quintessential cash game RB. He may not wow you with anything other than consistency but he’ll get you enough points to where he won’t make or break anything you have going. The Ravens run D ranks 6th in least fpts given up to the RB and they’re fresh coming off of a bye, so I don’t plan on playing any Conner this week. 

As far as the rest of the PIT offense, I know BAL has had time to watch tape for an additional week but I’m not sure that’s going to help them much. This offense has not been funneled towards any one receiver, or plan of attack. They’ve been so balanced and with Ben at the helm he’s helped rubberize this offense by finding consistent success on the ground and in the air and in short plays and long plays. Have you noticed how impressed I am with this Steelers offense?

The PIT offense is truly honoring the “next man up” approach. In 2 of the last 4 weeks, Diontae Johnson has averaged 14 targets and 1.5 TDs a game. In the 2 weeks, Johnson struggled through an injury, Chase Claypool averaged 1.5 TDs and over 31 fpts per game. Juju Smith-Schuster has been disappointing from an individual stat perspective but he’s been great at filling in the cracks in support of whichever other PIT WRs are blowing up in each particular game. Each of Johnson, Juju and Claypool are priced between 5200 and 5500 and I don’t have any kind of lean towards a particular guy. If I had to pick one it would be Claypool because he’s the only PIT WR noticeably faster than the corner expected to cover him most of the game (Marcus Peters). 

The Ravens are middle of the road at defending against the TE position and the Steelers are about middle of the road at using the TE position as a passing target. Eric Ebron is not the worst option at 3900 but I don’t trust the upside. 

I like the Steelers defense in general but I think it’s playing with fire rostering them against a mobile quarterback who on any given Sunday can rush for over a hundred yards and a nab a pair of touchdowns. I don’t trust him to throw well but I do think he consistently finds a way to give his team a chance. From a tenacity standpoint, Lamar Jackson is up there, and I’m not playing a defense against that if I don’t have to.

BAL

This offense is very easy to talk about. They do the same things every week; it’s dependable. I like the defense of Pittsburgh to do well enough this week, so in no way would I seriously consider playing any of the Baltimore offense. From a game script perspective, the Steelers are going to blitz a lot so Lamar Jackson’s not going to have to throw it as much as he would ordinarily begrudgingly attempt to do. Lamar Jackson’s going to be running a ton. He’s unquestionably a better runningback than all of his backfield mates combined, so we’re not breaking any new ground there.

Lamar Jackson at 7400 is really the only play on the Baltimore side. He should run for over a hundred yards, because he’ll be running for his life a lot against the blitz and that combined with the 1 passing touchdown he should have is going to put up points. He might run for more yards than he passes this week but that creates a fairly safe floor. I generally don’t pay up for quarterbacks but I kind of like Lamar this week. I might have a share or two and then keep my fingers crossed that he gives himself the goal line work. 

I don’t trust anyone else on this offense against any opponent or any part of the BAL defense in this matchup. 

TEN @ CIN

Over/Under 54.5     TEN -5.5

This is one of my favorite games to roster from this week. TEN should handle the Bengals to get the win but Joe Burrow always tends to puts up a valiant fight, so there should be fantasy gold everywhere. Both teams are also top 9 in pace of play so this has the makings of a barn burner.

TEN

We all know that Tennessee is going to lean on the run. They’re going to run fast, they’re going to run hard, and RB1 Derrick Henry at 8000 is an excellent play. The Cincinnati defense on paper doesn’t necessarily look bad against the run, ranking league average in fpts given up to the RB position. They also haven’t played against quality running backs very often. In week 1 against Cleveland, they allowed 29.3 fpts to the RB1 Chubb and 24.1 to RB2 Hunt. In their second meeting against CLE, they allowed 19.2 to Hunt and they allowed 14.7 to JAX James Robinson in week 4. The rest of the runningbacks they’ve played against were not very good… all of that to reemphasize that Henry is a good play this week. He’s one of my favorite RB plays of the week.

I like the Titans passing attack but ultimately I think this is specifically a Henry game. I think he has a huge game. 

Tannehill really shouldn’t have to do too much here. I know he and AJ Brown have been killing it but Brown has scored 4 TDs in the last 3 games. He’s good, but eventually that TD streak is going to end and I think this is the week. Last week and the week prior (against CLE and IND) the Cincinnati defense has done well in limiting the primary targets and done poorly at limiting the secondary targets. Undoubtedly AJ Brown is the primary target on this passing offense. I don’t trust any of the receivers besides him as more than a dart throw. Corey Davis at 5100 is way too expensive, but if you feel like lighting your money on fire, he’s your guy. 

The only other guy I like on the Tennessee offense is a gut play. Jonnu Smith is still working his way back from injury but this is certainly the spot for a secondary target to do well and all health being equal he’s the secondary passing target on this team. He’s really good and he has so much red zone upside. At 4100, coming into this game with a combined 4.2 fpts over the last 2 games, this is a prime buy low spot for Jonnu. I expect him to go for 16 plus points with a TD in this game and I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t hit that.

CIN

On the Bengals side, this offense is filled with fantasy goodness. Joe burrow is the real deal and should be passing enough all game long to hit that 300 yard bonus with ease especially without Joe Mixon in the mix again this week. 

I think the Bengals are going to throw a lot more than they did last week. They’re going to need to, to keep up with this Tennessee offense. Derrick Henry is going to dominate the time of possession and Burrow is going to have to make his opportunities count when his offense has the ball. Primarily because of the expected game script, I don’t like Giovanni Bernard. He’s also priced at 5,800 and that screams stay away after a big game last week at a much cheaper price point.

Joe Burrow is priced at 6,200 which feels very reasonable for his expected contributions to the offense. He’s an easy play. I’m not sure he has the highest upside on this slate but 25 points from this dude feels super safe.

The wide receiver position requires harder decisions. I think the Bengals might have three high upside fantasy receivers right now. Here’s how the three top guys performed last week:

Tyler Boyd: 11 catches/13 targets, 101 yards, 1 TD, 30.7 fpts

Tee Higgins:. 5 catches/5 targets, 71 yards, 1 TD, 18.8 fpts

AJ Green: 7 catches/13 targets, 82 yards, 15.2 fpts 

Purely because Boyd had such an incredible game last week, I’m going to fade him and go with Tee Higgins and Green. Boyd is great and if he beats me so be it, but I think in the realm of possibility, I wouldn’t try to chase Boyd after his best performance of the season at the highest price he’s been all year.  I like Higgins at 5600 and I especially like Green at 4500. AJ Green has seen 24 targets over the last two weeks and he hasn’t broken past 100 yards receiving yet this season. That should happen this week. He’s one of my favorite wide receivers to play this week. 

Drew Sample is for people who want to wave at big prize money through a window but don’t ever actually want to get any of it. The RZ targets are there but the production is not.

In summation, Burrow, Higgins, and lots of Green, and run that back with Henry and/or Jonnu.

LV @ CLE

Over/Under 54     CLE -2.5

Weather: RAIN, 25 to 40 mph WIND

I think the Raiders could upset the Browns in a game that probably should be more of a pickem then a lean in Cleveland’s favor. Baker’s coming off of a five touchdown performance and he’s the type of guy who follows that with one touchdown and three picks more often than a second quality performance in a row.

The biggest problem with this game is the weather. I’ve read there could be wind speeds of anywhere between 25 and 40 mph and that downgrades just about everyone. It downgrades the total, the wide receivers and although it gives more usage to the run game and the tight ends, the game is going to be slower, and the secondary/linebackers will be able to cheat towards stopping the run and shorter targets.

In ideal weather conditions, I love this matchup, but in these weather conditions I’m going to fade it almost completely.

The only thing I’m interested in this game is the Cleveland defense. It’s 2600 and I don’t think they’re a perfect play but they get a bump with weather helping them limit Carr’s passing upside. He’ll have to depend on a banged up RB struggling with a knee issue behind an O-line missing their pro bowl right tackle Trent Brown. It’ll be an uphill battle for the Raiders and Cleveland should be able to force some turnovers and hit Carr a few times behind the line of scrimmage. The bang for their buck is there. I like the Cleveland D a lot.  

NE @ BUF

Over/Under 44     BUF -4

Weather: RAIN

It’s weather season and this matchup should be avoided like much of the Raiders/Browns game. The game total is low and although we think Buffalo is a better team, the top weapon for the Bills is Stefon Diggs and his upside will be limited dramatically by the rain. Cam Newton hasn’t looked worse in a Patriots uniform, so it stands to reason that their OC is going to run as much of that offense as possible through the hands of the backfield. Sony Michel might play this week too which makes any of those runningbacks even more of a bad play.

Could a player in this game go off? Yes, but the odds are very low and more than likely that player won’t outscore an equally priced smart pivot in a much better game environment. 

I’m steering clear of this game and I don’t like either defense. 

I’d like to think that Buffalo wins this one pretty decisively, but anything can happen in bad weather. I’d steer clear of betting this one too.

NYJ @ KC

Over/Under 48     KC -19.5

KC is going to win this game. That 19.5 is too much though to side with any team against any other team. there are too many things that can happen in garbage time when the favorite doesn’t care anymore. Hit the moneyline on the chiefs and add them to a parlay so you can actually get value from this game.

KC

The problem with this team in this situation is that it’s hard to identify anyone who actually needs to play well for the Chiefs to roll. The expectation for the Chiefs offense is to get up early in the first half and then do everything they can to get their starters out as soon as possible to preserve their health. This means limited touches for Hill and Kelce. They each probably score a touchdown in this one, along with maybe three catches for 50 yards. You’re looking at about 15 fpts and that’s probably the floor and the ceiling. 

If you want to get adventurous then you can look at picking up Hardman or Robinson with Sammy Watkins out. Hardman is overpriced at 4700, but this might be his best opportunity for a touchdown all season. Robinson is a much better play at 3100. The price is enticing and he should see snaps in the 3rd and 4th even with the lead; 20 fpts is in the realm of possibility.

The player I like most in this game, who will probably be the highest owned, is Le’Veon Bell. He’s priced at 4600 coming into this game against the team who just released him. The revenge game narrative is real in this one, the Jets devalued him by coaching the offense so poorly and criticized his play all along the way. I’m certain Bell wants to show up his old team this weekend.  The Chiefs will likely go out of their way to help him get a touchdown in this one too. He’s a great cheap sub 5K play this week.

NYJ

Is Darnold or Flacco the starting QB still for this team? Ok, then no.

LAR @ MIA

Over/Under 49     LAR -3.5

This is one of those games that hype can easily have us overthink but is as straightforward as a game can possibly be. Tua is playing in his first professional game against one of the best defenses in the NFL. LAR should take this game, I’d take this even with the -3.5 points.

LAR

The easiest play is the defense in this one. The Rams defense wreaks havoc on QBs with plenty of experience and will without a doubt make Tua’s maiden performance one he’ll remember forever. They’re going to blitz him all game long. The LAR Defense is the 3rd most expensive on the slate at 3800. The floor should be fairly safe for them around 8 fpts with plenty of room for upside. Tua turned the ball over very little at Alabama but he also has never seen a defense like the one he’s about to see this weekend. 

On the offensive side I’m only interested in one offs because the Miami defense is above average at everything but defending the RBs. I don’t trust the RBs on the Rams so that doesn’t matter anyways. Since I’m not big on this offense overall, I’m not playing the QB or more than one receiver. 

Since the outside corners are well above average, the only receiver I like in this matchup is the slot receiver: Cooper Kupp. He should mostly see coverage from Nik Needham who Kupp is taller and stronger than. He’s at a nice in-between pricetag at 6500, where I think he’ll be forgotten while everyone else is paying up for guys closer to 7k and above, or a similarly priced Tyler Boyd (6600) or pay down below 6k for everyone else. He’s in a good spot to help gain leverage on the field in a good matchup. I’ll have him in my player pool for sure.

MIA

I love Tua. I’ll be rooting for him this week and every other week going forward. He’s a good dude and a good QB. I have no idea what his future holds in this league but I do know that his first defensive test is more than he can handle. Because I feel so strongly about the LAR defense I won’t have anyone on the MIA offense. However, I very much look forward to playing Tua and his receivers/TE in the future. 

MIN @ GB

Over/Under 54.5     GB -6.5

I like GB to take this one. Even without Aaron Jones healthy enough to play this game, they’re just more experienced and they’re led by a more talented QB. I don’t know if i’d take the points but I’m on the moneyline in a lot of spots. 

MIN

Dalvin Cook is expected to play in this game and I’m not sure if he’ll have a cap on his workload or if we’ll see beast mode Cook with no restraints. Generally, I don’t like playing guys coming back from injury and at 7500, I don’t expect to have much of him. He’s an excellent RB and he could very well have a good game, but I think he’s limited at least in his first game back. 

Green Bay is hovering just outside of the top 3rd of the league in defending against the WR position. They’re legit good at covering wide receivers. This situation doesn’t feel great to play them anyways. MIN should be going into this game trying to do 2 things:

  1. Lead in time of possession to keep the ball out of the hands of Aaron Rodgers
  2. Keep Cook Healthy

This plan projects for as much usage as Cook and Mattison can handle. Even when the Vikings get behind they’re still going to try to stick with the run as long as possible because again they’re going to want to limit the time that Rodgers/Adams touches the football.  

Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson should be shadowed by Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson. While Thielen has done well against Alexander in the past, he’s a very good corner who allows an excellent 0.55 yard per route run (yprr) and eventually the defender wins the battle. I think Alexander limits Thielen here. We don’t have much Justin Jefferson vs Josh Jackson data to go off of but Jackson is allowing an even lower yprr of 0.49 and I’ll side with numbers in this matchup over Cousins’ passing ability.

The only guy I like on this side of the ball is TE Irv Smith Jr at 3000. He’s had 10.4 fpts and 11.5 fpts in the last 2 games off of 5 targets in each. He’s the best TE on this team and should be the easiest target to get the ball to in this game while the defense is making life difficult for Thielen and Jefferson.

GB

Aaron Rodgers is the home favorite in this one and other than a rough game against TB this year, he’s been great since week 1. He’s so expensive right now, at 7600. This is his highest pricetag of the year. Even if he hits his average again this week of 23.9 fpts, that’s not going to be good enough. There are multiple QBs priced below 7600 each week that hit more than 23.9 fpts. This is a good matchup for him and he probably does get somewhere around 23.9 fpts but I won’t have any shares, specifically because he’s too expensive right now.

Aaron Jones is out again in this game so we should expect another quality showing from Jamaal Williams. He had an excellent workload last week against Houston. He had 77 rushing yards and a TD on 19 rushing attempts and 37 passing yards on 5 targets. We should expect a very similar workload and level of production again this week against a MIN defense who ranks in the bottom half of the league in defending RBs. I probably won’t have too many shares because I like a couple of cheaper RBs to perform just as well, but I don’t think you could go wrong at all by playing this dude again this week. 

The real question this week is in the GB passing game: are we going to pay up to get Davante Adams? He’s priced at 8800 and he’s the most expensive play at any position. He had 47.6 fpts last week and in week 1 against this same MIN squad he had 44.6 fpts. Is he good enough to hit 40 fpts again this week? Maybe, but I don’t think it happens. I can’t pay up that high for a guy while expecting him to destroy a defense he already destroyed earlier in this season. More than likely, MIN sells out to stop him and another Packer has a big game instead. For Adams to hit 3x value, he needs 26.4 fpts. He could hit that again, but that’s just asking too much from a human athlete. He’s not necessarily a bad play; if you can find the cash and feel good about the money you spend everywhere else. 

The problem with the rest of the WRs on GB is that they’re mostly not any good outside of Adams. Allen Lazard is ok, but he’s out again this week, still recovering from an injury. TE Robert Tonyan is a very thin option if you have to have a Packer. He’s priced at 4300 and he’s still struggling through an ankle issue. He should see a full snapshare, but I’d very much proceed with caution because he’s been dealing with this ankle for a couple weeks now and he’s failed to produce more than 5.5 fpts in a game over the last 2 games.

I don’t like this GB offense much at all. 

LAC @ DEN

Over/Under 45     LAC -3

This is one of the lowest totals on the board and I probably won’t have too much exposure to this game. I have more faith in the Chargers QB than the signal caller on the other side of the ball and I certainly think the Chargers win this one. I won’t spend too much time on this matchup because I agree with the projected game total; there’s probably only one guy that I’d even remotely consider taking in this matchup. Melvin Gordon at 5600 is coming into this one with a revenge narrative, playing against his old LAC team. He’s in a split backfield and his RB2 is expected to play so I don’t see how he outscores his price in a low total game in a timeshare. If you want a narrative though, he’s your guy. There is little reason to even consider taking anyone else in this game. 

NO @ CHI

Over/Under 47     NO -2.5

Weather: 21-40 mph WIND

This is another stay away game due to weather. NO should be larger favorites in this one in ideal conditions and these weatherly conditions. They are far more successful at short range passes and drive sustainability. The CHI defense has a great pass rush and ranks 9th in least fpts given up to the RB position. Kamara and Latavius should get a lot of carries in this game but it should be a struggle throughout as CHI will likely be able to stack the box and clog up shallower depth passing lanes. There’s nothing at all I like about this game other than a punt with the Saints Defense at 3400

SF @ SEA

Over/Under 54     SEA -3

This has to be one of the most intriguing games on the slate. SEA is the worst in the league at defending against the passing game and SF likes to run the ball primarily but can pass when they need to. There’s injury issues on both sides and yet the expected game total is still one of the highest on the slate; something has got to give somewhere. This is a betting stay away because SF seems to be in better position to win this one but that means you’ll be betting against Russell Wilson and that’s generally not wise. 

SF

One of the popular plays this week in the DFS community at QB is Jimmy G. His price is awesome for the matchup, at 5400. Generally, his team is very much a run first team but the SEA offense has had so much success scoring a ton and doing so quickly that SF should plan accordingly and try to put up as many points on the board as fast as they can to keep up. I’m not sure I’ll have much of Jimmy G, but he’s certainly not a bad play as he’s got an excellent pair of receiver options to help him along.

Deebo Samuel will be out this week so Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle are in great position to succeed. Aiyuk is reasonably priced at 5800 and will be the primary WR1 in this matchup. He makes the most of his targets when he gets them, he just doesn’t get them as much with Samuel healthy and with this team leaning towards the run. In the 2 games he saw 7+ targets he had over 20.5 fpts though. He’s certainly worth a roster spot this week.

George Kittle is probably an even better play. He’s the real top dog in this passing offense. He leads the team in receptions and is unquestionably Jimmy G’s favorite pass target. He’s also got the highest upside on this offense (he scored 43.1 fpts in week 4). He’s expensive at 7000, but he’s a good play. I don’t generally pay up for TEs, but wherever I can squeeze him in I will. This situation is set up for him to have a big game.

The 49ers have a hodgepodge of RBs who are healthy or healthy-ish and I don’t think the team has any idea how they’re going to use them. Plus, the SEA defense is good at stopping the run, so there’s really no reason to try to find a guy we like in the backfield. There’s no one else on this offense worth consideration.

SEA

The backfield is in utter shambles right now coming into this matchup against the 2nd best run defense in the league. Three RBs are gametime decisions and they probably won’t be running that much anyways. 

Wilson is too expensive at 7800 but he’s been unreal this year and certainly could have a decent game. I won’t have any shares of him this week but I’m more than happy to get a piece of him through the passing game. Both Metcalf and Lockett can have a blowup game any given week. Lockett saw 20 targets last week and ended up with 15 catches, 200 yards receiving, 3 TDs and 56pts. Good Lord! This is probably the best game of his life from here on out but he could very well see a 20ish fpt game this week. 

Especially after such a huge game last week for Lockett, I’m more inclined to side with DK Metcalf this week. Strangely enough, he had an uncharacteristic statistical dud last week in the same game as one of his career highlight moments when he chased down a Cardinal after an interception. It was a chase scene out of a movie and it was such an incredible play that some literal heads exploded at ESPN. They’re still looking for them. 

This week he’s priced at 7500, his highest price of the season. He should be in for a 20 fpts game. That has to be the expectation. The SF passing defense is better at defending against long pass plays like the ones Lockett finds success with than short route pass plays that Metcalf excels in. Lockett could do well this week, but if I’m attacking this SEA side it will be exclusively with DK Metcalf. He’s my favorite SEA play this week. 

The TEs don’t see enough plays in this offense to matter. 

Good Luck in week 8!

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