NFL

NFL Fantasy 2020 – Draftkings Picks and Game Breakdowns – 10 Game Main Slate – Week 5 – October 11, 2020

Matchups

ARI @ NYJ

Over/Under 47     ARI -7

This game has one of the lowest totals on the board and a middle of the line spread. Arizona should be the superior team from a health/talent perspective but we would have said that last week too in their loss to the CAR Panthers. 

ARI

No win in the NFL is an easy win. However, this seems like a fairly easy bounce back spot for the Cardinals against a winless Jets team. The Jets rank second to last in scoring offense and third to last in scoring defense. The biggest deficiency of the Jets defense is defending against the ground game. The problem with that in this situation is that the starting runningback for the Cardinals isn’t playing well at all. Drake has significantly underperformed all season especially in the last two games where he was playing against two very bad run defenses. His per game fantasy scores have decreased every single game since week 1 and even then it started at 14.5. That’s just not good enough. And RB2 Edmonds is touchdown dependent and he’s already priced up to 4,700, that’s also a no. 

This matchup is weird for Arizona. I don’t like the total, because I think Arizona struggles to get points on the board from the runningback position and even more so against an above average jets passing defense. I don’t feel good about Hopkins in this one because he’s so expensive at 7900 and against this defense I don’t think the upside is there. Even if he gets you 20 fpts that’s not good enough at 7900. Murray probably has more rushing yards than both runningbacks combined too but probably without more than one passing touchdown. I’m fading this offense. 

I do however like the defense for Arizona. Their price tag at 4100 is really rough though. I don’t think I’m going there but if you have the money it’s an option. 

NYJ

Joe Flacco is starting.

Let’s go ahead and move on to the next game.

CAR @ ATL

Over/Under 53.5     ATL -1.5

This game has one of the highest totals on the board and it’s got one of my favorite plays of the week. 

CAR

Any offense facing the Falcons has to be super excited all week leading up to the game. This ATL defense is unreasonably bad and it doesn’t appear to be getting better any time soon. ATL is only slightly below average in fantasy points scored against the running back position, but against every other skill position they struggle mightily. They rank dead last against the quarterback and TE positions, and they rank 24th against the wide receiver position. 

CAR QB Bridgewater had a nice game last week; I’m never ashamed to admit when a bad player has a good game. He had 2 passing TDs and 1 rushing TD and almost 300 yards passing in week 4. At 5900, I don’t plan on rostering him, but this is the spot for it if you like the guy. 

Even though I don’t plan on rostering Bridgewater, I think a one-off receiver in this game will be a staple of my lineups. The pass volume funnels towards 6000 DJ Moore and 5900 Robby Anderson. Both guys are viable; the two are separated by a total of one target so far this year. In my experience, the cheaper option generally gets the higher ownership so if you want to be different picking up Moore would be the play. I like Robby Anderson better because Atlanta tends to struggle particularly against short route receivers and on this team that’s Anderson. 

If you are dumpster diving at tight end then you can look towards Ian Thomas, at 3400. He had five targets last week and a touchdown. I don’t know if I’ll go there because I like other tight ends better but you could do worse if you need to save money at this position. 

At the CAR Runningback position Mike Davis is climbing up in price. This week he’s priced at 6400, which feels very expensive considering that he saw 16 rushing attempts last week and his backup Bonnafon saw 10 attempts. Bonnafon will be out for this game though so they’ll likely have to lean on Mike Davis more than they have before all season. In this matchup, against the 30th ranked Red zone defense, the position is a good play. It’s possible the back up Trent Cannon gets those 10 touches but I guess that maybe he gets half of those and Davis gets closer to 20 rushing attempts in this one. He’s a good play this week, I’ll have him in my player pool.

ATL

This is the first time the Falcons have started a season 0-4 since 1999. Of course they’ve been dealing with a lot of injuries but defensively the team is becoming more and more embarrassing by the week. I wouldn’t say that the Carolina defense is great but statistically they’re not bad. They struggle mightily against defending the run, ranking 29th in fantasy points given up to the RB position. Outside of that though they’re above average. Since we don’t know how healthy Ridley is and we know Julio’s unhealthy and we don’t necessarily trust any other receiver against an above average defense I think the only guy we can even consider on this offense is Todd Gurley at 5700. He’s cheaper than Mike Davis. His team needs him to do well to have a shot of winning this game. Yeah, I think Gurley is a good play in this one and if I had to choose between the two backs in the game I’d have him over Davis. I’ll have both in my player pool.

LAR @ WAS

Over/Under 45.5     LAR -7.5

I’ve been excited all week about this game because Dwayne Haskins is getting benched. I’ve been wanting to play Kyle Allen especially at near minimum price. I don’t necessarily think that Kyle Allen is a top tier or even a mid tier backup quarterback but in the context of price and situation, I don’t know, I was excited, sue me. And then I started researching this game and the situation got murky.

LAR

Rams are a heavy favorite in this game and the point total is low. What does this mean? It generally means we need to look at rostering the runningback. Especially on a team that loves to run. Here’s the problem though, I don’t trust either running back. Against the Giants last week, Brown had 9 carries for 38 yards and Henderson had 8 carries for 21 yards. Even with the combined 6 receptions, the backfield duo ended up with 35 passing yards. I don’t like the timeshare and they’re both priced to 5300 against an above average run defense, so I’m out on those fellas. 

Speaking of the Washington defense, it’s really good at defending against passes as well. It ranks 2nd in least fantasy points given up to receivers. They don’t even blitz that much, they excel at containment. We all know Jared Goff struggles against heavy pressure and since he’s not seeing that, I’m not sure we know how he’ll react to a “containment” defense. I don’t trust him in general. And since I don’t feel great about Goff, I’m not interested in Kupp or Woods or anyone else on this offense. If I had to pick a Ram, which I don’t, I guess I’d lean towards what appears to be a severely overpriced Higbee at 5600. I think he leads the team in targets this week against this defense but since this offense is so run-heavy I don’t know if leader in targets means anything.  A TE at 5600 in a run-happy offense is TD  dependent and needs everything to go right even after he scores. Too many variables, I’m not taking anything on this offense.

The only aspect of this Rams team I’d be willing to roster is it’s defense, and I’d feel good about it if it weren’t priced at 4000. Man, that is expensive for a defense. Against a turnover prone QB who hasn’t taken a snap this year, the situation is pristine. Considering the Rams offense plays so slow that the opposing offense doesn’t have as many possessions to turn the ball over and is more likely to go three and out all game than have interceptions occur, I don’t like the upside. Last week against a poor Giants team, they had 11 fantasy points and that’s not anywhere close to being good enough to pay off that pricetag. If you take a piece of the Rams, I think this is it, I just won’t have any.

WAS

On the Washington side of the ball, I really want to play Kyle Allen. He’s 4100!!! This might be the only time this season a starting QB will be priced this low. He’s inexperienced and turnover prone, and playing against a good defense that plays very slowly. A lot of things have to go right for him to see high upside but at that pricetag, if you get production at the other positions Kyle Allen doesn’t need to do that much. I’ll have a sprinkle. He’ll be in my player pool but I won’t have much of him. If he can score two touchdowns in this game I think he keeps the starting spot, so I’ll be rooting for him to do that. The Rams defense is legit good though

I don’t think this is a good spot for the rest of the Washington offense and even if I play Allen, it won’t be a stack. At his price, he doesn’t need a pairing. This would be about the time that most would suggest Logan Thomas, but that dude has done nothing with his targets. Maybe Allen is what lights a fire under him but I’ll be late on this one if I have to, I don’t want him flooring my lineups this week. This Rams Defense should double McLaurin and as I’m fairly certain they proactively shut him down I won’t play him. None of the other receivers on Washington have high enough upside to consider. 

Strangely enough the one thing I like most from WAS is also their defense. I trust a good WAS Defense over Goff any day. They’re priced at 2600 and that screams value. Admittedly, this defense has a lower floor than any of the others I’ll have in my player pool but at that price they have just as much upside as most more expensive options

PHI @ PIT

Over/Under 44     PIT -7

This game is gross and I don’t intend to play much from this matchup. I expect PIT to win and I feel pretty good about them covering the spread too. 

PIT

Low total, high spread leads us to the RB. James Conner might be going under the radar this week in a prime spot for success. Other than his results in week 1 where he was briefly injured, he’s put up excellent numbers; in the only other weeks he’s played he has a TD and over a hundred yards rushing. He basically has the same usage as Mike Davis and James Robinson and in plenty of scenarios he’ll outscore them in any given week, yet they’re expected to come into the week with higher ownership. The PHI run D is about league average and I’d say Conner’s talent is slightly above league average so I feel good about him in this week’s matchup and at 6900, I’ll definitely have him in my player pool. 

Generally speaking when I feel this good about an RB, I usually don’t pair them with a QB and I certainly wouldn’t pair them with a WR. If I think Conner gets past a hundred yards again, it means that he’s getting a lot of reps that aren’t going to his team’s receivers. I’m not playing Big Ben and I’m not interested in the receivers on this side with such a low game total. The only other offensive player that I’m interested in on the PIT side is TE Eric Ebron, priced at a flat 4000. Ben loves his TEs. Loves them. Ebron’s seen 12 targets combined in the last 2 weeks and is tied for 3rd in RZ looks. At some point in the near future I expect him to move up the ranks in RZ targets, as he and Ben get in better rhythm with one another. This is a great game to do that, against an Eagles team that saw a banged up George Kittle pull down 15 targets for 183 yards and a TD last week. Maybe Kittle is that good (which he is) or maybe they’re just bad at covering TEs, and most likely both statements are true. 

The PIT Defense is underpriced at 3800 this week. If any defense hits over the 20 pt mark this week, I’d guess it would be the PIT D. The PHI offense is sputtering and injured and mostly broken from all angles. Usually Zach Ertz would make this kind of matchup competitive but I’m not sure he’s that guy anymore. Fun Fact: Carson Wentz has 4 TDs this year and 7 interceptions so would it surprise you if PIT added a couple more interceptions to that total and maybe took one to the house? Me either. 

I like Conner. I like Ebron. And I like the PIT D.

PHI

Oh boy. QB Carson Wentz is struggling mightily. Somehow he led the team to a win over SF last week but I feel like that had more to do with the SF injury situation than the Eagles actually playing well enough to deserve the credit for that victory. This matchup is not going to be fun for Wentz. He’s going to see a ton of pressure and turn the ball over. 

Miles Sanders in most instances is a good play, because he’s so involved in the offense but I’m not as interested playing him against the 3rd best run defense in the league. Yeah, I’m not playing anyone on this offense. I’m very high on the PIT defense and barring something crazy, the Eagles offense should have nightmares after this game.

CIN @ BAL

Over/Under 51     BAL -13

This is possibly the most straightforward game on the slate. Baltimore is a run heavy offense and they are expected to run down the throats of the CIN D. I don’t however think the Ravens are 13 points better than the Bengals

CIN

Are the Bengals going to win this game? No, probably not. But they’re talented enough on offense to keep things within 2 TDs in several scenarios. Burrow is legitimately good and he’s surrounded by a very serviceable WR cast. I firmly believe in the expected gamescript to play out as expected though. BAL will get a lead early on and run the ball the rest of the way. This will do 2 things, it will take Mixon mostly out of the game and it will also have Joe Burrow and the CIN offense throwing a lot. When I say a lot, I mean a lot with respect to the pass/run play disparity that will be tilted severely to the passing side. It sounds ideal for burrow but because of how ground dominant BAL is he’ll likely have less drives available to him to get the passes in you’d want from him.

I don’t think Burrow has the upside in this game especially at 6000 but I think he’ll get enough passes in the game to put up some stats for one of his receivers and I think Tyler Boyd at 6200 or Tee Higgins at 4900 could be that guy this week. BAL allowed 10 receptions and over 100 yards to high ADOT Terry McLaurin last week, allowed 4 catches and a TD to a similar type player Mecole Hardman in week 3 and even quiet as a ghost Brandin Cooks had 5 catches and nearly a hundred yards against this same defense in week 2. Tyler Boyd is one of my favorite receivers in the league. He can blow up for huge games and he just seems like a steady target that any QB would love to have. Although Boyd can crush it in any context, I think this matchup leads to a higher ADOT WR in Higgins who is seeing almost double the depth of target as Boyd. It feels a little bit like chasing after Higgins has had 2 solid weeks in a row, but I think his role in the offense is becoming increasingly more solidified as the season wears on. 

While we’re not on the subject of AJ Green; I came into this article with high expectations for AJ Green going forward. Despite the lack of success he’s seen so far this season, he still leads the team in targets and is tied for 2nd on the team in RZ targets. The reason that he’s completely changed my mind is because he’s quitting on plays. If you watch any full game recap over the last couple of weeks, you’ll see him quit on plays. Until further notice AJ Green is not my fantasy friend anymore. 

TE Sample could be a good play in this matchup. He leads the team in RZ targets and he’s due to have a stand out game. I’d probably prefer to hold off on picking him up until he’s playing against a less quality defense but he’s not a bad option.

I’ll only have Tee Higgins in my player pool from CIN this week. 

BAL

I don’t trust much on this offense. I trust Lamar to rarely throw the ball (he threw 14 times last week) and the members of his backfield to perpetually disappoint. At 7900, Lamar Jackson is the only player I like on this offense. He’s coming into this game with a questionable tag although he’s expected to play. He should have no problem running in and out of the CIN defense and I’d be surprised if he doesn’t surpass a hundred yards rushing and stumble into a rushing TD or two. I think he’ll struggle in the passing game against this above average passing defense but he’ll get points one way or another. I’m not sure how many shares of Jackson I’ll have, but I’ll have some. This situation has a fairly high floor for him and plenty of upside for 30+ fantasy points. 

I don’t trust any of the guys in the BAL backfield and I don’t trust Lamar to get the ball to any of the wide receivers on his team enough to make them fantasy relevant. Andrews at 6200 could be an option if you’re desperate for a stack, but I won’t be going there. 

The Baltimore defense is always an option, at 3900. They’re one of the best in the league by just about every metric and could realistically have the most defensive fantasy points on the slate. Burrow is good but he’s also young and young quarterbacks will have games where they throw the ball to the other team more often than they’d like. This could be that kind of situation.

To recap: I like Lamar Jackson and the team defense on the Baltimore side. 

JAX @ HOU

Over/Under 54     HOU -6.5

This is one of my favorite games on the slate. I think it could easily have the highest game total this weekend. The Texans are in do-or-die mode now without a scapegoat in their former head coach and they are desperate to win their first game. This has all the makings of a game with fantasy flowing goodness.

JAX

Gardner Minshew is one of my favorite fantasy QBs week after week because he plays with an aggressive mindset and equally because he has the right receivers to sustain said mindset. At 6200, Minshew is definitely in play this week. Since I like him so much I’ll also look to stack him with one or two of his coworkers. 

The Houston defense in weeks 3 and 4 gave up flaming fantasy points to the best pieces of each of the opposing offenses. They don’t do a good job of stopping one kind of receiver in lue of another, they just let the other team’s offense do whatever they want. With that in mind, if Jacksonville had no barriers to endzone entry, I think Minshew would get the ball in the hands of Laviska Shenault and DJ Chark. Shenault at 4500 is still too cheap; he will be a 5000+ WR at some point this season. You can tell Minshew trusts him and his stock in that offense is exponential. I like him a lot this week. The 2nd mentioned WR is DJ Chark and he’s the obvious choice on this offense. He’s got a nose for the end zone and although he’s played one less week than the other receivers on his squad, he’s already 3rd in targets and could very likely take the lead this weekend. At 6500, this is the highest price he’s seen all year, but it jives with his talent and there’s still upside in that if things go right for him. I’ll have more Laviska, but Chark is plenty deserving on any roster. 

The elephant in the room in this game is at both the RB positions. Everyone expects this game to shoot out and both David Johnson and JAX James Robinson are overshadowed by the ingredients of the pass offense of both of these teams. Believe it or not, but the biggest defensive deficiency for both of these team defenses is defending against the RB position. Both are in the bottom 7 in fantasy points scored by the opposing RB. This bodes well for David Johnson of course, but it bodes even better for James Robinson who finds himself with a more defined and more steadily increasing role in his offense. In week 2, Robinson had 2 TDs and 30.8 fpts against the Miami Dolphins and statistically the Dolphins have a better run defense than the Texans. Right after Shenault and before Chark, James Robinson is my second favorite guy from JAX in this game. Priced at 6700, there’s plenty of upside, especially if JAX were to take an early lead.

This probably isn’t much of a surprise but neither of the Jaguars tight ends will find themselves anywhere close to my lineups this week. 

HOU

The Texans hated their coach and he got fired this week so you’d think they’d have an extra edge about them going into this game with a ‘we’ll show him” attitude. Watson at 6900 is pricey, but if you’re going to pay up for a QB he’s your guy if you don’t think Lamar Jackson is going to overexert himself against CIN. 

I know this sounds crazy, but the guy I like the most on the Texans this week is RB David Johnson at 5200. Last week Mixon trounced the Jags with 151 yards rushing, 2 rushing TDs and a receiving TD and that was the only opponent he’s played well against so far this season. David Johnson got 16 carries last week and 3 targets and if he starts off hot, you can bet that the Texans will ride that hot hand from then on out. It’s hard to say what this team will look like under new leadership but one way or another I think they’ll do everything they can to get their first victory of the season. They’re in desperation mode now. 

Brandin Cooks is dead to me and he’s the only reliable WR on that team outside of Will Fuller. I really hope the new team leadership starts surrounding Deshaun Watson with better targets and a better O-line. Fuller at 6600 is the highest price he’s seen this season, but this matchup is also the best he’s seen all year. 

At the TE position, if Jordan Akins misses, then Darren Fells at 3400 is a great play. If Akins plays, then I’d steer clear of both of them because they steal each other’s targets and upside. Right now Akins is questionable, but unless I hear otherwise, I’ll expect him to play.

LV @ KC

Over/Under 56     KC -13

Huge total, huge spread, oh my! This slate is an RB slate if I’ve ever seen one!

LV

I think the Raiders get blown out in this one. The KC offense will tear them apart and the KC defense shreds them even more. The Raiders rank last against the run and are facing one of the best RBs in the league so far this season. They’re middle of the line against the WR position, but again, this week they’re facing Patrick Mahomes, so a mediocre passing defense isn’t good enough.

Since I like the Chiefs to destroy in this game on both sides of the ball, I will not be playing any Raider.

KC

It probably feels like chasing after the KC Defense put up 20 fantasy points against the Patriots last week but this really is another good matchup for them. At 3500, they’re priced more than fairly for the situation.

As I said previously, Clyde Edwards-Helaire should have a field day in this one. At 6800, he should hit the 100 yard bonus and find his way into the endzone at least once, and probably twice, this matchup is just too juicy. He has a steady role on the ground, averaging 18 carries over the last 2 weeks. He’s also averaged 4.5 targets over the last 2 weeks as well, so he’s getting the ball one way or another.   

Mahomes at 7700 is probably not a play I’ll look to in this matchup. He just doesn’t need to do much with all of the work Clyde is getting done. Patrick is great and it’s possible that he throws for over 400 yards with 4 TDs like he had against the Raiders in the first Chiefs/Raiders meeting last year. However, I just feel better about Edwards-Helaire controlling the clock and doing whatever he wants on offense. 

Even though I won’t be stacking any of the wide receivers with the KC QB, I think there’s’ a path for one of the KC WRs to do well and I would expect Sammy Watkins to be that guy. He specializes in short route situations which is the distinct weakness of the Raiders defense. They like to keep everything in front of them, successfully focusing on covering boom or bust players like Tyreke Hill while giving up plenty of yardage to lower ADOT WRs like Sammy Watkins. At 4500, that’s gotta be the most attractive thing about him. I don’t know how many shares of him I’ll be drafting, but that price opens up a lot more things, so he’ll be in my player pool. Hill doesn’t fit the gamescript and Kelce is gamescript proof but at 6400 that’s a hard price to get up to with so many other players I need to pay up for on this slate.

My favorite stack from this game is Edwards Helaire and the KC Defense. That’ll probably be my most common non-QB stack this week. 

MIA @ SF

Over/Under 51.5     SF -9.5

The line on this one may have come down some and if you can get SF at -8 I think that’s the number to bite on. The 49ers did lose a devastating one to the Eagles last week but this seems like the perfect bounce back spot for them to pick on a lesser opponent. This is one we don’t need to overthink.

MIA

The Dolphins players are perfect to play in Draftkings against the Seahawks or the Cowboys or the Falcons or any other defense that isn’t very good. Against a good defense, albeit a banged up one, this is not a time you want to roster any tuna. Fitzpatrick should be under pressure all game and this will likely lead to stalled out drives and probably a turnover or few. So far this season, Fitz has thrown more interceptions than TDs and that’s a very foreboding stat going into San Francisco.

I don’t like Fitzpatrick at all in this one and as a result I’m not a big fan of taking any part of this MIA offense. The 49ers rank #1 in least fantasy points allowed against the RB position, #5 against the WR position, and #2 against the TE position. All of this screams “stay away” from taking the MIA side in this matchup.

SF

On the 49ers side, the scoring possibilities are endless. Miami’s defense is poor against RBs and WRs but against TEs they rank 6th in the league. Kittle is not the average TE though, and so in this matchup I’d say that any TE defenced specific stats are useless. That being said, Kittle is priced at 6600 and if we agree with the total and the spread expectation we probably don’t expect Kittle has to do much in this game anyways. Especially given that George has just arrived back from injury, I don’t expect Kittle will reach a full allotment of snaps. 

Jimmy G is likely playing in this game and even so he’s not someone i’ll be rostering. This game is the perfect spot to take the SF RB and run with it. This backfield has dealt with injuries all season and this week is no exception. Mostert is questionable and expected to be a game time decision and if he plays he should start. If he starts, I’m not sure he becomes a viable roster candidate but he does probably knock off 5800 Jerick McKinnon from your rosters. The floor should still be there for McKinnon against MIA, and he should reasonably see 7 to 14 rushing attempts and 4 to 8 targets like he’s seen over the past 2 weeks, and with that kind of usage his skillset should net him around 15 or so fpts. The ceiling lowers if Mostert plays and drastically. He’ll be probably capped at or around that 15ish point floor. The ceiling significantly jumps if Mostert is out and as a result he’ll be in my player pool with a note to only play if Mostert misses. 

Although I’m excited to see how Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel find success together in this offense, I have no lean towards who does well in this matchup. I don’t think any other receiver on this SF roster is viable so I won’t be taking any 49ers receivers. 

The SF Defense is priced up at 3700. They feel very safe and at least one interception is expected. The matchup is good, the defense is good, I’ll certainly have them in my player pool.

In conclusion: I like the SF Defense paired with McKinnon, only if Mostert misses, if he plays, I’m only interested in the defense. 

NYG @ DAL

Over/Under 54     DAL -9.5

These two teams rank first and second in pass play rate so this matchup has the makings for a ton of fantasy points scored. If you can get the right game stack variables from each side you’re in for a very wealthy day.

NYG

Wow, has Daniel Jones had a rough schedule to start the season. His first 4 games of 2020 were against: PIT, CHI, SF, and LAR. Those are all very tough defenses to stumble through. He hasn’t scored a TD in 3 straight games and quite frankly if that streak continues through the Dallas game he’s probably going to get benched. He has to have a lot of pressure coming into this game but this atrocious Dallas defense is a ‘get-right’ defense for opposing QBs, so at least he has that going for him. 

He’s been talked up in a lot of podcasts and if you’re feeling him I’d say go for it, but I don’t expect to have many shares of the guy. The price at 5400 is reasonable and I will definitely have him in my player pool, but I’ll roster him knowing that he could very easily crash and burn and ruin my lineups. I’m not sure I trust who he has to throw to but the DAL defense is bad enough to try to be more open minded. The team leaders in total targets and RZ targets are the only two guys i’m interested in taking:

TE Evan Engram – 4600

WR Darius Slayton – 4800

Since I don’t necessarily believe in Daniel’s talent overall, I won’t be stacking him with both Engram and Slayton, I’d only go with one and just hope I chose the right one. 

The Giants RB is Devonta Freeman so Obviously I won’t be going there. 

DAL

The Giants rank 6th against the QB position in fantasy points allowed, but they also haven’t played an offense as prolific as the Cowboys thus far. Dak Prescott has been amazing! Over the last 3 games he’s averaging 474 yards passing. I’m not sure Dak will be able to continue his 450 plus yard passing streak through this game but his team may be the most desperate in the NFL. They need a win desperately and I trust Dak to do everything necessary to make that happen this week. 

Ultimately, Dak’s priority in this game will be to feed the ball to Zeke and let him carry the offensive load down the field as often as possible. NYG is slightly below average at defending against the RB position and they have yet to face a workhorse back who is as dynamic as Zeke Elliott. He should be very highly owned in Draftkings this week, as the highest priced RB on the board at 7800. He’s played well thus far and still hasn’t had his breakout game; he has yet to surpass 100 yards rushing and that should happen in the very near future, if not this week. I’ll have him in a lot of lineups.

At the WR position, there’s a lot we don’t know about this NYG defense. There hasn’t necessarily been a type of receiver that the Giants have struggled against. We know they’re good at defending against bad receivers, that’s about all we know. That doesn’t help us much because the Cowboys have 3 very capable WRs that each have the talent to produce a huge game any given Sunday. With all things being equal, I put my trust in targets and the one and only Amari Cooper leads this team in targets with 50. For context, the next closest leader in targets on the team is Zeke with 32 and the leader in targets on the 49ers is Kendrick Bourne with 22. My point is that the Cowboys throw the ball a ton. At 7400 Amari Cooper is pricey, but as the leader in targets and RZ targets he’s a great play in a desperation need-to-win situation like the Cowboys find themselves in. If you’re feeling Lamb at 6000, roster him. Or if you’re feeling Gallup at 5400, by all means, add him in. Any of these receivers could have a big game and we’ll have to wait and see how the Giants handle this kind of offense before we’re able to identify their pass defense weaknesses.

I don’t feel great about the TE position in this matchup, so I won’t be going there. 

I’ll have a lot of Zeke, plenty of him paired with Cooper and then gamestacked with one of Engram or Slayton. 

IND @ CLE

Over/Under 47     IND -1.5

I’m not a big fan of this game so I won’t spend too much time on it. 

IND

The weakness of the Browns defense is through the air and I don’t trust Philip Rivers or his WR group. The CLE defense ranks 10th in least fantasy points allowed to the RB position so I don’t feel great about rostering Jonathan Taylor coming off of a 17 rushing attempt game where he amassed 8.9 fantasy points against a very similar quality run defense of the Bears. This offense to defense matchup feels like an endless array of 3 and outs. I don’t feel good about drafting anyone on this offense.

The IND Defense is interesting though. At 3300, they should be fairly low owned and have just as much upside and talent as any other defense on the slate. The CLE offense is without its starting RB Chubb who is out with an injury and even though Hunt is a very viable backup, Baker has one less offensive weapon to hide behind and to keep him from throwing the ball to the other team, which he has been known to do. I like this IND defense, it could be the golden ticket this week. 

CLE

In fantasy points allowed, the Colts defense is #1 against the QB position, #2 against RBs, #1 against TEs and #9 against WRs. They are legitimately good and possibly the best defense in the league right now. That kind of defense is not something I’m in any way interested in targeting against from any level of the CLE offense. 

The CLE defense is fine in some senses but not worth rostering overall.

Good Luck in week 5!!

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