LV @ NE
Over/Under 47 NE 5.5
Don’t overthink this one. NE by a TD or more is not only possible but likely. I’ll add this to the parlay.
The Raiders are coming off of a stunning victory against the New Orleans Saints this past Monday, 34 – 24. Yes, they did let Alvin Kamara do pretty much whatever he wanted on the field, nearly breaking 100 yards in both rushing and receiving. And yes, Brees did cross the 300 yard passing mark in this game as well. But, they limited Brees to a single passing TD, forced him into throwing an interception and they put up 34 points on the fairly stingy Saints D in primetime. The Raiders did this, undeniably. From a DFS standpoint, target volume was a huge issue. If you had D. Waller, who ended up with 12 receptions on 16 targets for 103 yards, you were in the money, but if you had literally any other Raider you were screwed. The next closest receivers in terms of targets were:
Hunter Renfrow: 3/3 for 37 yards
Henry Ruggs: 1/3 for 4 yards
In summary: the Raiders’ WR group was not good. Carr was fine, Jacobs was fine, Waller was great, and everyone else was not good. In one off situations this can work out, but not on very many occasions and rarely on consecutive occasions.
This week they’re going up against a NE Defense who allowed a total of 1 reception on 2 targets for 9 yards combined in Week 2 to SEA TE Will Dissly and TE Greg Olsen. In Week 1, the Patriots allowed the blossoming Mike Gesicki 30 yards on 3 receptions. The Pats D is not conducive to TE production at all. At 5700 Darren Waller comes into the game questionable, I think he plays, but I’m not playing that dude in this situation.
In the first 2 weeks Waller accounted for 24 targets and against this Patriots defense, he shouldn’t get anywhere close to that kind of volume and thus a lot of the receivers who we saw play poorly last week are going to be tasked with having an awful lot more relevance in the offense. Last week the Seahawks WRs and specifically Russell Wilson tore the Pats D apart but unfortunately Carr just isn’t on the same level as Russell Wilson. All of the Raiders receivers are dirt cheap on DK and there’s potentially even a tad bit more usage heading their way with Waller bottled up and Henry Ruggs ruled out but this is the same Ruggs we mentioned earlier who went 1/3 for 4 yards last week. Go ahead and spread that usage around and see how far it gets you. He’s playing hurt right now.
This is not the matchup for Josh Jacobs either, all the way around this is not a good matchup for anyone on this Vegas team. I’m steering clear of this side of the ball.
There are very few things I hate more than a New England backfield and none of them come to mind right now. The committee approach is annoying and it doesn’t lend itself to fantasy goodness. Based on my expectations for the Raiders offense and this game as a whole, I would expect the Patriots to get themselves a lead and at some point spend at least the last quarter running out the clock. A bigger problem than the usage for this backfield is the fact that the best runningback on the team is the team’s QB, who also happens to get all of the goal line work. James White is out, so we’re left with Was He Ever Any Good Sony Michel or Same Question But Named Rex Burkhead. Maybe it’s just the offensive scheme in NE, but either way, I’m not a big fan of anyone in this backfield.
Cam Newton’s pricetag is rising along with his stock this season and at 6700, you have to at least consider him in your player pool. He’s had 2 rushing TDs in both weeks and he’s only had one passing TD so far. He should double that season passing TD figure this week alone. While the ground game has had mediocre success, Cam will take the ball into his own hands (literally) and 6200 Julian Edelman is in a prime spot to benefit in the passing game. He’s averaging 9 targets in the first 2 games and is in position to take advantage of the OAK poor secondary. N’Keal Harry is questionable in terms of status and also in terms of talent so I’m not going to be going there. One interesting play though is 2nd time teammate of Cam Newton, 3000 Damiere Byrd. He had 9 targets in week 2 and you could do a lot worse if you were looking for a floor price salary saver whose QB is due for some passing TD success. I like Edelman objectively more, but Byrd could get you there on usage alone if Harry misses and if he gets a TD. He’ll end up being one of the best point per dollar players you have on your roster. Cam Newton doesn’t bother knowing that there are tight ends on the NE roster so neither should you.
CHI @ ATL
Over/Under 47 ATL -3
Before diving deeper into the matchup, doesn’t this scream of ATL vengeance after losing in such dramatic fashion against the Cowboys last week?
The ATL secondary is worthless so a nice pairing of QB Trubisky and Allen Robinson feels like a solid play. Mitch Trubisky at 5700 struggled in week 2 against the Giants but should be in store for a much better performance in the passing game. In week 2, QB Dak Prescott threw for 450 yards…yeah, the Falcons D is that bad! Trubisky has the rushing upside that we always like to see and a quality WR1 Allen Robinson who is desperately looking to bust out his first big game this season. Robinson at 6200 has had 9 targets in each of the first 2 games and if he’s ever going to get going, this is his shot at it. It doesn’t get any easier. The rest of the WRs on the CHI offense don’t get enough reps and are too TD dependent for my liking. On this side of the ball, I like the Trubisky/Robinson stack and that’s about it. The Falcons have a pretty decent run defense and the CHI backfield is not good.
The Falcons offense is averaging 32 points a game so far through 2 weeks. It’s hard to tell how good the Bears defense actually is because they’ve played against 2 poor teams so far this year: the Giants and the Lions. They’ve only allowed one passing and one rushing TD though against two real NFL teams.
The touches are there for RB Todd Gurley, he just hasn’t done much with them so far. If I’m playing anyone on this side to pair along with my Bears QB/WR1 stack it’ll be either 7200 Calvin Ridley who is balling the heck out so far this year or Russell Gage at 5100, who has put together a very nice start to the season as well. I like the talent of Julio Jones but he’s coming into the game questionable and his struggles against Dallas last week appear to be injury related. Ridley’s production has been the most consistent in the league thus far with fantasy point totals of 36.9 in week 1 and 32.9 in week 2. This can’t go on for a 3rd straight week can it? It could, but I don’t feel good about it. I’d much prefer Gage at 5100.
TE Hayden Hurst saw increased volume in week 3 but that pricetag is already at 4700 and that feels steep. I think the ceiling is certainly 20 fpts if Julio misses but the floor is closer to 10 whether Julio plays or not. He seems like a pretty solid cash game TE if your plus button won’t let you select one of the PHI tight ends instead.
I kinda like the Bears in this game, especially if Julio sits. This is a betting stay away for me because I think the entire game hinges on the motivation levels of ATL and no advanced statistical data or extensive game viewings can predict that. I think we’ll know in the first few minutes of this game where ATLs head is at. I have no idea where it is now so I’ll have my money elsewhere.
CIN @ PHI
Over/Under 47.5 PHI -4.5
This is one of my favorite games to grab a piece of on the slate.
The Eagles defense got shredded by the Rams last week, 37 to 19, and LA probably took their foot off the gas fairly early on or the scoring disparity would have been even wider. The CIN QB Joe Burrow played great in Week 2, scoring 3 TDs and throwing for over 300 yards. It was admittedly against a questionable Browns defense, but nonetheless he certainly passed the eye test. At 6200, Joe Burrow is a solid tournament play with plenty of upside if his team continues to get AJ Green his league leading air yards and they remember the versatility of Joe Mixon. I don’t necessarily think that this is the best spot for Mixon, because his OC is an idiot. But I do like Burrow and I like AJ Green at 6000 who is averaging 11 targets a game so far this season. Tyler Boyd is really the only other viable receiving option on the squad and it feels like chasing after his 7 catch, 72 yard, 1 TD performance last week. He’s a fine I guess, but AJ Green jumps off the page as a better option particularly due to his consistent target volume. TE Drew Sample had a solid 9 targets last game and after Higbee scored 3 TDs against the poor Eagles defense I could easily see a scenario where Sample has another good week. At 3500, that’s not a bad play at all, I’ll have him in my player pool. This side has a very low-key, high upside, low price stack option: Burrow, Green, Sample. If it hits, it’ll have very low ownership. Reminder, the Eagles are favored in this game, but they’re not very good and they have a lot of injuries that only partly explain why they’re not very good.
Truthfully, I don’t know what to do with Miles Sanders this week. He’s getting talked up and at 6400, with his role in the passing game and his quarterback’s inability to throw the ball accurately further than 10 yards consistently, he should be a good play but that ownership is going to be high. I’ll have him in my player pool as it just feels like a perfect spot for him to find success. It almost feels too perfect. He had 20 carries and 7 targets in week 2 and that pricetag is just too strong to ignore.
The Eagles QB is not good, I’m staying away from him. As a result of how strongly I feel about the team’s QB play, I don’t really like any of the Eagles WRs either. The Bengals did give up a lot of points against the Browns but most of that came from the Chubb/Hunt combo, i.e. Sanders is the play. The only other guy on the offense I like is Zach Ertz at 5100. When healthy, he’s reasonably always priced at above 6k. His role is stable with the injuries on offense and this could be a solid breakout spot for him. I probably won’t have him in a lot of places because I like others at the position more but it feels like a really good spot for Ertz, especially if you think Philly wins this one.
I’m on the Bengals side of this game. I think they cover and Burrow has another great performance catapulting his team to its first win of the season.
SF @ NYG
Over/Under 42 SF -3.5
Don’t overthink this one. I’ll keep it simple with you. The Giants are not a good offensive football team especially without their star player RB Barkley who is out for the year with a knee injury. The NYG defense is decent, they’re not nearly as bad as their offensive counterpart but the 49ers are better coached and even when plagued by injuries, they’re a more talented team. I’m not playing either QB because neither are good. As a result, I’m not playing any of the WRs. Jimmy G is out so even though I like the pricing of 4000 Jordan Reed, I’m out on him.
SF is going to run the ball a ton in this game and your only DFS decision in this one is whether or not you want to eat the chalk by starting Jerick McKinnon who is dirt cheap at 4900 and when healthy is one of the most dynamic backup RB playmakers in the league. I like him. I’m playing him a lot. You’ll hear whispers that his counterpart Jeff Wilson Jr at 4000 is the better play in the backfield so take that with a grain of salt. He could get the goal line work and vulture TDs from McKinnon; that’s very much in the realm of possibility. I’ll take my chances with McKinnon but definitely toss in Wilson instead if you’re feeling him. I like SF in this one and I completely agree with the line here in that it should be a very low scoring affair.
Sidenote: Devonta Freeman hasn’t even taken a snap this season or been on a team for a full week and he’s priced at 5500. That doesn’t make any sense.
HOU @ PIT
Over/Under 45 PIT -4
This is another one of those games that we don’t want to overthink. The point total is low and the favorite is coming into this one at home, and 2-0, against an 0-2 team. There’s been a lot of talk about Big Ben wanting to play better and to some degree he very well might in this one against what we expect to be a bottom tier Texans defense. So far the Texans have played against arguably the 2 best offensive teams in the league in Baltimore and Kansas City so we don’t know exactly how good or bad their defense is.What we do know however is that Pittsburgh’s defense is undoubtedly the best defense they’ll have faced so far and that’s going to make things tough for Watson and co on offense.
On the Houston side of the ball QB Watson at 6500 seems like a tough price for this matchup. With Dak just a little more expensive, and in a MUCH better matchup, Watson is not a guy I’m going to. The Steelers are going to stuff the run so I don’t like any of the Houston Johnsons. Every single one of the Texans WRs is hurt in some capacity, and not enough to give value to their backups, they’re just healthy enough to hobble around the field and give no value to anyone. At the TE position, either Akins or Fells is probably going to score a TD but they’re pretty low upside plays in this offense. Objectively Akins at 3400 is about the only dart throw you want from this offense, but even he isn’t a guy I plan on playing.
This team is a 4 point home favorite with a low point total against a bad run defense; that has C-O-N-N-E-R written all over it. At 6700 his pricetag seems steep for his production so far but this matchup couldn’t get much better. He doesn’t get as many targets as we’d prefer, averaging 3 a game, which is half of what we’d expect from several guys priced below him, but he’s the primary back in a good spot. I think he’s probably more of a cash game play because Ben is anxious to get the ball downfield early on this season.
Since I expect this to be a fairly low scoring affair I expect Ben to get a couple passing TDs to a combination of Juju at 6600 and Diontae Johnson at 5400. Juju is priced up a little more than I want to pay for him. He’s probably worth that pricing, but I don’t see any upside in it. On the other hand Diontae Johnson has quickly become the alpha dog on this offense. He’s averaging 11.5 targets so far through 2 weeks and he’s looking sharp. I don’t like Ebron at 4300 who doesn’t need to do anything in this game for the offense to hum along how they want to.
The game total and expected gamescript doesn’t call for playing Ben in this one, and I don’t play that guy much anyways. If you’re going to grab a piece, grab a little bit of James Conner and a little bit more of Diontae Johnson and move on to the next games.
TEN @ MIN
Over/Under 49.5 TEN -2.5
This is a pretty high game total for a TEN game. The implied total for MIN is higher than you’d expect too because they’re terrible.
Vegas expects the Titans to win this one as a road team against an 0-2 Vikings team who is one of the most desperate teams in the league this week. MIN has done a decent job against the run for the most part, allowing 66 yards on 16 attempts to GB Aaron Jones and 101 yards on 26 carries to Indy’s Jonathan Taylor. Keep in mind that 101 yard was on a heck of a lot of carries. The problem for Minnesota is that Derrick Henry is a walking bag of carries. He’s averaging 27.5 carries per game so far. It would be nice if he had any kind of role in the passing game, but for whatever reason that’s not in the cards for Henry. At 7800, 20 fpts on 27+ carries is expected in this one and if he falls into the endzone a couple of times, he could have a huge day. He’s a good play. Good plays don’t always work out but he is undoubtedly a good play.
Ryan Tannehill is an interesting play. He always seems to go under the radar because when people think about this offense they think about Henry marching his team downfield and Tannehill throwing just enough to give Henry more space up front. At 5900, that’s a good price. He’s had a floor of 19 so far this season and with a great red zone target in Jonnu Smith, a realistic game scenario involves Henry running for 115 yards without a TD and Jonnu Smith catching 2 or more Tannehill TD passes. That’s basically how week 2 played out: Tannehill had 4 TDs and Jonnu caught 2 of them. At 5200, Jonnu feels priced up, because he is, but IND backup TE Mo Alie-Cox just put up 111 yards on that porous MIN defense. They’re just not built to defend against a large, physical TE/WR and that’s exactly who Jonnu is. I don’t know how many shares of Tannehill I’ll have in my lineups but I’ll have him in my player pool along with Jonnu.
On the other side of the ball I’m struggling to find anyone I like. Dalvin Cook, at 7600 needs more work in the passing game. The run D for TEN is it’s weakest link and Cook is a top RB in the league. TEN also struggles against pass catching RBs. In this game and always, MIN needs to pass the ball to Cook. He’s great in the passing game. I just don’t see it happening after he’s seen 4 targets thus far through 2 games. That is unacceptable. He should be getting the same usage as the likes of Miles Sanders and Zeke Elliott and the fact that he’s not producing incredible fantasy numbers with his skillset is a clear indictment of the stupidity of the coaching staff. The only hope for Cook in this one is that the coaching staff acknowledges their desperation and plays to win this game. And to win this game, make no mistake, Dalvin Cook has to be front in center in everything they do on offense. He’s a great tournament play because the upside is there. I won’t have much but that’s more because of how I feel about MIN coaching than how impressed I am with Cook’s game. That dude is incredible.
Until further notice I don’t trust anyone on the Vikings offense, not even All Star Adam Thielen. In this situation, I’d rather be a week late than a week early, because Thielen is priced so high at 6900 that if Cousins continues to play how he played in week 2, then Thielen getting you 6.1 fpts will absolutely destroy your chances of being profitable in any manner. Hopefully we’ll have more to talk about with this offense next week.
WAS @ CLE
Over/Under 45 CLE -7
What do we really know so far about the 1-1 WAS Football Team? They have a good defense against bad quarterbacks. They have a bad defense against MVP caliber quarterbacks. Their quarterback is not good and they have a WR1 who can look good regardless.
You know I don’t like their QB, so we won’t discuss that again. They have a negative game script and so they should be throwing from behind. I don’t like their backfield anyways so the only options we have on this squad are going to be price related one-offs that fit the expected gamescript. Scary Terry McLaurin is a great wide receiver who is trapped in the body of a good WR in a bad offense. One day, he’ll be an easier guy to play often, when the team hires a better QB. At 5900 McLaurin could do well, and he’s priced cheap enough to consider in specific situations. Because I think CLE is going to ground and pound the ball dominating the time of possession better than any team WAS has played so far, I don’t think Terry gets as many targets as he did last game (10) when he had 28.5 fpts. He’ll probably get closer to 7 targets similar to week 1 when he had 11.1 fpts. The only guy I kinda like in this game on WAS is TE Logan Thomas at 3700. He burned a lot of people last week and he’s at a price where the upside might be worth it if he finds the endzone and gives you the opportunity to spend up elsewhere.
This is probably going to be a pretty common pick because of the price point, but at 3000 the WAS Defense seems like a good play. Baker should throw at least 1 interception. It worked out for us against Philly. This might not be the best defensive play on the board, but it’s not bad, it really isn’t.
Lets run that same gameplan back again that we saw last week vs CIN. Give me some Chubb baby, with some Kareem Hunt poured on top.
In Week 1, WAS did fine against the run against a high school backfield. In Week 2, they gave up 86 yards on 20 carries to Drake. This week, they have to fend off a 20+ carry Chubb and a 10 carry, 3 or 4 target Hunt. I like this backfield collectively but both are priced up this week: Chubb at 6900 and Hunt at 6100. Realistically, we could be looking at a final box score where Chubb has 90 yards on 21 carries and Hunt has 60 yards on 10 carries with a pair of targets for 10 yards and a TD. In that scenario you don’t really want either of these dudes. This is a likely scenario!!
The WAS defense is going to rush the hell out of Baker when they’re not running the ball and that’s going to cause a lot of throwaways so I don’t really like any of the receivers much either. It seems like a punting contest in between slightly above mediocre rushing success from the CLE RB duo. The only guy I kinda like on this side is a TE as well, Austin Hooper, who has done nothing this year. At 4400, that feels stupidly priced, but against this WAS defense he might be the easiest passing option. I don’t feel great about it, but he’s an option. Eventually he will get going.
LAR @ BUF
Over/Under 46.5 BUF -2
Both of these 2-0 teams could be terrible and we don’t even know it yet. They’ve beaten the Jets and the Eagles and the Dolphins and the Cowboys. None of these teams are probably that good. Maybe the Cowboys are, we’ll see, but the rest of them, probably not. I think this game hits the under and I like the Rams to win.
The Bills have a decent run defense so I’m steering clear of the LAR backfield. Their secondary isn’t great though and they have a fatal flaw that sooner or later is going to bite them pretty hard: They let the other team’s passing offense do whatever they want whenever they want. The opposing #1 target has balled out so far in the first 2 games, Gesicki 8 for 130 and a TD, and Jamison Crowder (because the Jets have no one else) 7 for 115 and a TD. So who would the Rams want to target on offense if there was no defense on the field to stop them? I think that’s Cooper Kupp. At 6300, he’s going to be low owned and his numbers so far are not indicative of his talent or role in the passing offense. Those numbers are more indicative of him not really needing to do too much for his team to get the W. This feels like a Cooper Kupp game and I’ll have him high in my player pool. I like him so much that I want no part in 6100 Robert Woods and I’m certainly not chasing on 5900 Tyler Higbee.
I don’t trust Jared Goff to stack him generally, because I prefer a least a little rushing upside from my QB to help stabilize the floor. At 5600 though, that’s not terrible, it feels like an easy 20 fpt spot for him and a 4 TD 20+ spot isn’t out of the realm of possibility. I like Goff in this one. It’s worth noting that this Goff play is admittedly contrarian. He will be low owned and you’re going to look like an idiot if it doesn’t work out. But in this situation, with his expected ownership, zagging here is a good move. I’m not going to have a lot of him, but I’ll have some shares.
The Rams defense might be kind of good. Like I noted above, it’s hard to tell how good because of their poor competition thus far. Nonetheless, they’ve kept Zeke Elliott and MIles Sanders under a hundred yards rushing and they actually haven’t been scored on by any position besides the RB position. RB1 Devin Singletary should get a lot of reps in this one with RB2 Zack Moss out due to injury and at 4900, he could get you the value you’re after on volume alone. Ironically, he’s the same pricetag as SF McKinnon who will be extraordinarily highly owned. #PivotAlert# I don’t really like Devin to ever cross 100 yards rushing or get anywhere close to 100 yards receiving. He’s a bus driver pass-catching RB1 who you can almost count on giving you 50 yards rushing, 40 yards receiving, on 4 receptions. If he somehow gets in the endzone, you’re looking at a great priced great play. QB Josh Allen steals a lot of the goal line work so it’s very difficult to have high TD expectations for Singletary but if there’s ever a time to play him, this is it.
Josh Allen is usually a pretty good play. He’s grown a lot in the offseason and you can tell that he’s worked very hard on his game. He’s outperformed his pricetag considerably in each of his first 2 games of 2020 but I think you’re asking a lot for him to do it again in this spot. The pass D for the Rams hasn’t allowed 1 single TD to receiver or a TE yet this season and it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if that streak continues. I don’t like Josh in this one and as a result, I’m not a fan of any of his receivers to outplay their pricetags. Diggs at 7000 is a no and John brown at 5700 is a no as well. I’m not sure they have a TE on their roster anymore and if they do they don’t use him.
CAR @ LAC
Over/Under 43.5 LAC -6.5
CMC is out and the LAC defense is good. QB Bridgewater is unfortunately not good and although the price for RB Mike Davis at 5100 is reasonable, I don’t like this side of the ball at all. The Chargers should blow them out.
Since I feel very good about the Chargers, I’m taking LAC and the -6.5 in this one. I’m still getting used to the timeshare of Joshua Kelley who had 23 rushing attempts in week 2 against KC, and Austin Ekeler who had 16 carries and 4 targets. Going into this game I liked Ekeler a lot but at 6800, I think he’s priced too high to consider with his shady volume-share with Kelley. I much prefer the QB/WR stacks for LAC
Justing Herbert at 5900 is one of my favorite QBs on the slate. He looked great in KC in his first pro game and he’s got an even better matchup against CAR. If I liked Carolina more I’d have more shares of Herbert. Keenan Allen has the best statistical matchup on the slate and his price at 6100 is perfect. Mike Williams at 4300 has a ton of upside too. Hunter Henry is too expensive and I don’t really feel like this has game stack material written on it so I’ll probably just have a lot of Keenan Allen sprinkled throughout my lineups.
NYJ @ IND
Over/Under 44 IND -11.5
We both know how this game is going to go. Hit Indy on the moneyline and add it to whatever parlays you’re coming up with. Everyone good on NYJ is hurt and we don’t need to waste time deciding who we like more between WR17 Chris Hogan and WR18 Braxton Berrios.
IND QB Philip Rivers really needs to stay out of his own way on this one; currently, he’s got more interceptions than TDs. At 6000, that’s too expensive to roster with much better options priced similarly. The only WR I like on Indy is T.Y. Hilton at 5600 who is underpriced for his upside and is rumored to have been scolded by his grandmother for disappointing her so far this season by his play on the field. If grandma has money on this guy, he better ball out and I’ll be rooting for him to help her cash out so Thanksgiving doesn’t have to be awkward for the two of them. Every other receiver on the Colts is not very good. TE Mo Alie-Cox had a solid performance in week 2 and probably has a better matchup in this one. At 3800, the upside is definitely there. I’m not sure what the floor is, but there’s upside.
The real star in this game (other than T.Y and his grandma) is RB1 Jonathan Taylor. He’s becoming more dominant by the game. He had 101 yards rushing in week 2 and could easily surpass that in week 3. Last week the Jets gave up 169 rushing yards and 2 TDs on 11 carries to SF Mostert and McKinnon. Insane! Taylor is getting the volume and the gamescript is just right. 7000 feels like a lot of money to pay for a guy who was 5700 last week, but he has upside at that price. He’s a major talent in this league and he’s going to get better from here on out if he can stay healthy.
DET @ ARI
Over/Under 55.5 ARI -5.5
This is the second highest game total on the slate. Vegas is expecting a shootout and a lot of fantasy goodness simultaneously.
The ARI defense doesn’t allow much to the RB position so i’ll skip over that. They did however allow Scary Terry to go 7 for 125 and a TD in week 2 and Colonel Mostert 4 receptions for 95 yards. Each of these players plays a different position but they both represent the priority target for each team. For DET, we don’t really know yet who that is. Kenny Golladay might be back from injury for the first time this season, but at 6200, that’s as questionable of a play as his status. Marvin Jones might very well be the guy, but he’s priced at 5800 and it seems more likely that he continues getting his 4 catches for 39 yards or so per game that he’s averaging so far. If he was closer to 5000, I’d take a much longer look at him, but his price is simply too high for all of the unknowns baked in. I don’t really like the upside of QB Stafford or anyone else on the DET side.
Remember when Aaron Jones went off for 168 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs and 68 passing yards and a TD? That was against this same DET Lions defensive line. I think Kenyan Drake has himself a game in this one. He had 16 carries in week 1 and 20 carries in week 2. Kyler Murray takes away some of the RZ upside with his little QB sneak activities, but Drake has an opportunity to have himself a very big game with his own TD or 2. At 6000, he’s one of the best values on the slate.
The Detroit secondary may have better numbers through 2 games because of how porous their D-line is, nonetheless, they have yet to allow a receiver to cross the hundred yard mark. Deandre Hopkins has been excellent so far this season and his 12.5 targets per game is in the top of the league. He should be the first WR to get to that 100 yards in this one and probably scores himself a TD as well. At 7900, he is pricey but with the value at RB this week, you should be able to find room for him in plenty of builds. Him and Drake appear to be a very solid combo in this matchup. I don’t trust any of the other WRs/TEs on ARI in general and certainly not in this matchup where a big game from some rando on the ARI offense just isn’t necessary.
Kyler Murray so far this year has my vote for MVP if he can share it with his WR Hopkins. I think ARI crushes the -5.5.
DAL @ SEA
Over/Under 57 SEA -5
The moment we’ve all been waiting for. Even this game preview needs Michael Buffer to introduce it. This game is expected to be overflowing with fantasy goodness. I think it’s a bettor stay away unless you want to be on the over.
In Week 1, Seattle allowed Matt Ryan to throw for 450 yards, while 3 ATL receivers passed across the100 yard mark on 9 catches each. In Week 2 against NE, Cam Newton threw for 397 yards, Edelman caught 179 yards worth and each of the WR2 and WR3 had 72 yards on the day. The SEA run D is formidable, and their pass D is stompable. This should be a huge passing game opportunity for the big 3 DAL receivers:
Amari Cooper – 6500
Michael Gallup – 5500
CeeDee Lamb – 5400
Any of these guys, or all of these guys could have a huge game. I was extremely impressed by Lamb’s performance last week and even more so by the usage DAL is giving to him. At 5400 he’s going to be a popular play, but a great play. Gallup has not had nearly the same success as Lamb in the first couple of games but the upside is nearly the same. One great thing about a close game resulting in a come from behind victory is that you learn a lot about who a coaching staff and their QB trust in key situations when they want to win a game. In last week’s come from behind victory, that confidence was in first and foremost CeeDee Lamb, followed closely by Amari Cooper and very distantly by Michael Gallup.
If you’re going to eat chalk everywhere else, then Gallup has to be your play in this one. But if you’re willing to differentiate just a little bit elsewhere then CeeDee Lamb and/or Amari Cooper should be on your list of guys to get in your lineups. I think this goes without saying, but I really like the DAL receivers in this game and as a result I really like their star QB Dak Prescott at 7200. He was incredible last week. He’s getting more QB designed runs at the goal line this season and that strengthens his upside even more.
Ezekiel Elliott is the best RB the Seahawks have played against this season, and by a mile. I’m not sure how great of a run D they have but I have a lot of confidence in the skill level and usage of Mr. Elliott at 8300. I think he’s my favorite play from this game. He’s got the pass-catching upside regardless of gamescript and while everyone else is loading up on these receivers Zeke could be the guy getting the RZ targets to put the points on the board. And if Dallas gets up at any point, they’re going to feed that guy the ball as often as they possibly can. Dalton Shultz could be a good play but at 4500, I’m not chasing that. Zeke, Dak and one of those receivers are going to be in a lot of my lineups.
Dallas has a decent run defense so far this season but their pass defense is more than vulnerable. They allowed over 100 yards to Robert Woods in their loss in Week 1 and over 100 to Ridley in Week 2. Truth be told, if Julio had been fully healthy in the last game, he would have easily crossed the hundred yard mark as well.
I don’t think you could go wrong with Russell Wilson who is playing like a top 3 QB in the league. His 7300 pricetag is more than fair and even has room for upside. I like Metcalf in this one at 6500. The DAL defense has been especially burned by the deep threat and DK Metcalf is that guy. He’s priced next to Lockett but has an ADOT over 5.5 more yards. Lockett is a fine play, I just prefer Metcalf. Stacking both with Wilson might actually even work out with the target share those two have a stranglehold on in that offense. None of the other WRs are that good so I’m steering clear there. None of the TEs are good pickups either so I’m off of them.
I don’t necessarily think that DAL comes away with the W in this one but I do think they take a lead at some point and Elliott gets a lot of work on the ground. A Zeke/Metcalf stack is one of my favorite stacks on the slate.
I’m super excited for this game.
TB @ DEN
Over/Under 43 TB -5.5
I like TB to win this one and I have them in most of my parlays at the -5.5.
DEN is 0-2 so far to start the season, losing 2 close games with a combined point differential of 7 points. They’ve allowed over 100 yards rushing to each of their first opponents and I would expect Fournette and co to see a ton of success on the ground. The Bucs have an RB by committee approach that is leaning further towards the talent of Fournette after he ran for over a hundred yards on 12 carries in week 2. Ultimately it’s still a committee though until the coaching staff wisens up. Fournette at 6200 is too expensive and his backfield mates are terrible, so I won’t be going there.
I actually think Brady has a solid but no-frills performance in this one. At 6100, the price is too steep for what the team needs him to do. He’s going to depend on the ground game and spread the ball around fairly evenly. I wouldn’t be surprised if Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Scotty Miller end up with a TD. At their prices, I don’t expect them to need to hit their upsides to beat up on the Broncos so I’m steering clear of everyone on this offense. Oh and for some reason the TEs don’t get hardly any volume in this offense so I’m out on them too.
I don’t like anyone on this offense. Driskel isn’t a great QB and he’s going up against a solid TB defensive unit. He played pretty well against PIT and that’s exactly why I don’t think he does well 2 weeks in a row. I could go down the list, but the result is still the same: this is not a spot to play dudes on this offense. If you want a piece of this game, hit the moneyline on TB or get them with the points.