NFL

NFL Fantasy 2019 – Week 7 – 102019

SF @ WAS

Over/Under 40.5     SF -9.5

*Weather* – Light Rain

Alright, let’s get this out of the way: the 49ers are going to kill WAS this week. The 49ers defense is so good and the Redskins everything is so bad. The 9.5 spread doesn’t even sound like it’s enough. So far this season WAS has lost by 5 points, 10 points, 16 points, 21 points, 26 points, and won by 1 point in their win against MIA. Their opponent scores an average of 12.8 points more than they do in every game they’ve played thus far. I’ll have SF for the -9.5 in my game parlay for sure. If that number hits over 10, I’m not sure I’d be on it though. SF will win, but rainy game, with the favorite going coast to coast, seems like a great setup to rest some players and coast in this one. 

On the 49ers side of the ball, the 49ers DEF is in a perfect position at an understandably steep price of 4100. When we like the D we usually like the corresponding RB to take it home for us. The problem with this SF squad though in DFS is the backfield share. In the last two weeks, RB Tevin Coleman (5600) has had 18 and 16 rush attempts and RB Matt Breida (5300) has had 13 and 11 rush attempts. One of these dudes is probably going to hit value, but your guess is as good as mine as to who that is. And both could score a TD and get 75 all purpose yards and still not hit value. Neither have to do much to help their team win this game. Kittle coming in at 6700 off of limited practices with a groin strain? Why play that dude? Not the spot for it. Since I don’t like Kittle, Jimmy G’s top target, I don’t like Jimmy or the rest of the receiver corps.

On the WAS side of the ball…please don’t. 

ARI @ NYG

Over/Under 50.5     NYG -3

*Weather* – Light rain

At first glance I didn’t really like the Giants in this game. Little Kyler Murray has been all the rage as of late because he’s been playing well and willing his team to their first winning streak (2) of the season. The NYG passing defense is second to last in the league and the rush defense isn’t much better. Here’s what makes NYG a VERY motivated squad: their NFC East division is a total dumpster fire. The Giants are playing with a rookie QB, their all-world RB1 has been out due to injury (back this week!), their excellent TE missed the last game with a knee sprain, I’m not sure they’ve had a real WR1 all season, and they’re 2 and 4. Yet, with a win this week, they’ll be tied for 2ND in their division! They seemed so out of the hunt in stretches for most of the year, but the inadequacy of their division gives them a chance. From here on out the Giants play: the Jets, the 3-3 Cowboys, the Dolphins, the Redskins and the 3-3 Eagles twice. Unless the Eagles or the Cowboys miraculously get a lot better, this 2 and 4 Giants team has the fate of their season entirely in their hands and their schedule perfectly sets up for them to win their division with ease. And all of that starts with beating bad teams — like the Cardinals. I think Kyler keeps this a shootout, but NYG should cover the 3 if they care about making the playoffs at all. I feel good about them winning by more than 3 but I’d at least get them on the moneyline if you think Kyler works his magic to keep things closer than 3 or if the line jumps higher.

On the ARI side of the ball, Murray is going to have to ball out to keep things close. He can run, he can throw, he can do a little bit of everything and he has his work cut out for him against a Giants team that desperately needs this win to move up in their division. We don’t know whether David Johnson plays or not but I’m leaning towards the negative. If he’s held out that boosts Kyler and also RB Chase Edmonds who has scored a TD in each of the last 2 weeks. Edmonds is a talented back with great hands and a motor on him. With reps, he’ll certainly showcase his talent. The WR spot is where things get a little sketchy; Fitzgerald is safe, but he’s just not doing much with his targets. He’s averaging a little more than 8 a game, but he’s playing old at this point in his career. It looks like stud WR2 Kirk is going to miss and quite frankly the rest of the ARI receivers aren’t good enough yet to attain many fantasy points. ARI really needs to look into bringing in a young-ish veteran WR3 to get that offense where they want it. The ARI TE position is a wasteland, so we won’t go there either. If you like Murray then you’re looking at him tossing a TD to Fitz and 1 to Edmonds in the backfield, and getting himself upwards of 50 rushing yards. The only dudes I’d take from this ARI squad are a sprinkle of QB Murray and RB Edmonds if DJ misses. And if DJ and Kirk misses, you have to downgrade Murray and probably evacuate that offense completely. DJ may play though, so keep an eye on that.

The Giants are going to give it to their best players in this game and that’s mostly RB1 Saquon Barkley 8900 and a splash of TE Engram 6500. Engram coming off of a missed game, Nope, not going there. At that price he has to have an exceptional game to hit value, and that seems like a reach with knee issues. WR1 Golden Tate is coming off his best game of the season and with Engram and Barkley back, I see NY using him more as a decoy/3rd option. At 5800, I can’t use Tate, it’s too pricey for the situation. QB Daniel Jones, I think is good in general, but with Barkley there, a known commodity, that’s who the coaching staff wants to have the ball to try to pick up this W. To recap. I like Barkley only, he’s pricey, but they really need this win! 

HOU @ IND

Over/Under 47     IND -1

I don’t know if I’ve ever heard such a cheap defense (2000) talked up as much as the Colts this week. Everyone, literally everyone, thinks that this game is going to have a ton of points scored on both sides and also that the Colts are going to sack Watson at least 4 times and return a pick/fumble for a TD. It’s such a specific performance that multiple people are expecting out of the IND team. I’m very curious to see how reality compares to this foresight. The Colts are getting talked up because the Chiefs and a hobbled Mahomes only scored 13 points on them last week. But the Raiders dropped 31 on them the week prior so I don’t really get all the love this defense is getting. Full disclosure, I got on the Texans as the +1 underdog earlier on in the week when that line first dropped and after writing this, I’m going to double down on it now. The Texans should win this game. 

On the Texans side of the ball this Watson doesn’t need a Sherlock to help him solve anything. QB Deshaun Watson has been out of this world good this year and he’s doing it pretty consistently. He’s going to be popular this week playing in one of the higher game totals and he’s going to play well. His offense spreads the ball though, not quite like LAR, but close. Their number one WR Deandre Hopkins has had consistent volume all year, but has struggled mightily in paying off the pricetag. He only hit above 3X value in Week 1, and the rest of the time he’s struggled to even hit 2X. The volume is there though, and he’s certainly due for a big game. He’s priced at 7800 and it feels so high this week with the expensive RB guys we want to get in, but he’s a great gpp play for sure. I like WR2 Will Fuller more at his price, 6200. He had a down game last week but still ended up with 9 targets. I think he gets in the endzone again this week. HOU has a two headed monster at TE and I have no idea which one of those guys gets the bulk of the targets or otherwise finds the endzone, so I won’t be playing either. IND doesn’t throw too often. We played RB1 Carlos Hyde last week because the matchup was perfect, but that’s not the case this week. The IND Rush D is about average and average D is better than Carlos Hyde with a single target a game. Watson + Hopkins or Fuller is the right play in this one. 

On the IND side, everything hinges on RB1 Mack finding a way to score. I like QB Brissett in some situations but he just doesn’t attempt enough passes to hit value at his 5600 pricetag. I love a sub 5k Jacoby Brissett but he’s creeping up a little too high for me. The upside just isn’t high enough at that price. Everyone is talking up Ty Hilton this week due to his success previously against the Texans. It feels like bad chalk. All of those great games involved a better passing QB throwing Hilton the ball. Brissett can do a lot of things well, but he’s never going to be the passer that Luck was. I’m completely off of Brissett and Hilton. RB Mack at 6k is in a rough spot against a top 8 rush defense. If you’re desperate and Marlon Mack’s mom is standing behind you looking over your shoulder while you’re setting your lineups then maybe you can throw him into a very low dollar contest but otherwise, I’d steer clear. This isn’t the right matchup to roster any Colts.

OAK @ GB

Over/Under 46.5     GB -4.5
What a weird game. It feels like every starting calibur WR is out for the GB side as well as some of their backups. OAK is coming off of a bye, with a great rush D against a team that kinda has to run the ball because they don’t have any experienced receivers to throw to. Here’s the problem, OAK is in the same WR receiver boat as GB as WR1 Williams is still out and they don’t really have much other WR talent on that roster. I think this game could be close and I don’t have a good enough feel for who wins this game between John Gruden and Aaron Rodgers. 

On the OAK side of the ball, Josh Jacobs is chalk city. I like him…at 5k…I like that a lot. The GB rush defense is bottom 3rd in the league and Josh Jacobs is playing great. First and foremost, Jacobs is going to be a huge part of my lineups this week. Hopefully Gruden spent the last two weeks figuring out ways to get him more involved in the offense as well. He is a solid pass catcher. QB Carr is playing in this game and unfortunately for him its the GB offense that has injury issues not the GB defense, so I’m way off of Carr. TE Waller is the only other name of note and he missed practice due to a foot injury. He just signed a big contract extension the day before and I just don’t feel great about playing a potentially hobbled Waller when he should have a very short leash if he looks like he’s struggling out there. 

On the Green Bay side, they need to have open tryouts for their WR group. It’s unreal how decimated they are. I think a lot of people might go to min priced Allen Lazard at 3000, but I’m not sure there’s too much upside with that. He shouldn’t kill you though if you play him. I don’t like QB Rodgers or hobbled TE Graham, or any of their other cheaper wide receivers. I think Gruden spent the last two weeks gameplanning for players that aren’t playing so I’m not sure how much of a help that will be. Even against a solid run defense I think GB pounds the ball with Jones and Williams like they did last week. Jamal Williams is so fickle that I don’t feel great about rostering him after a great game last week and Aaron Jones looked terrible last week, so I don’t feel good about him either, especially at 7100. I think the under is the play in this game or a complete fade.  

MIN @ DET

Over/Under 43.5     DET -2

I liked DET against the Packers last week, but not so much against a very feisty MIN squad with an extra-motivated QB. I like MIN to take this one.

On the MIN side, RB Dalvin Cook is the obvious play at 8000. He’s getting a ton of opportunities in terms of carries and targets and he’s playing against a poor DET rush D. Cousins at 5800 seems expensive in this lower scoring game as does 6900 Thielen and 6300 Diggs. I won’t have anyone other than Dalvin Cook on the MIN side.

The Lions have a tough challenge in store for them against a MIN team that likes to manage the clock through the run game. Golladay at 5800 has a great pricetag as does 3600 TJ Hockenson who was targeted often in the RZ earlier this week. Kenny Golladay gets a ton of targets and should find himself in the end zone at least once. I don’t like anything else on the DET side of the ball besides Golladay and TJ Hockenson if I have a roster build where I need to save money at TE.

JAX @ CIN

Over/Under 43.5     JAX -4

I like JAX to cover this one. CIN is the other other Dolphins it feels like. They’re not good at all.

On the JAX side of the ball, I like a lot of Leonard Fournette. His usage rate is a close second to CMC and he’s really coming into his own over the last few weeks. JAX should get ahead early in this game and Fournette should be running out as much of the rest of the game as possible. In this vein, I like the JAX Defense paired with him. CIN is the absolute worst rushing defense in the league. At 5400, Minshew looks too expensive for a game he shouldn’t have to throw much in, and as a result, I don’t like his stud receivers Chark and Westbrook. 

On the CIN side of this game, the only player I’d even consider rostering is Tyler Boyd at 5600. With respect to talent, that’s a great price. His only problem is that his QB is bad at throwing things most of the time. The volume should be there though. He’s a great GPP option. RB1 Mixon at 5000 is also a better talent than his pricetag but he’s just not involved in the offense schematically as much as he should be. He should get a ton more passes in the backfield, but his coordinator is not making that a priority. Mixon truly does have the game-changer ability in the passing game similar to backs like CMC and Kamara. He’s not quite at their level but he’s a lot closer than his coordinator believes. This is not the week to play him, but I look forward to playing him against a bad opponent later in the season. Fournette, Jaguars D and Tyler Boyd.

MIA @ BUF

Over/Under 41     BUF -17

BUF is coming into this game after a bye. They’re well rested and they’re playing against the worst team in the NFL officially. Obviously this game is going to blowout. 17 points is still an awful lot of points to bet on any team with such a high spread. I’d hit the money line on this and just take the easy bucks and squeeze it into a parlay as a nice throw-in. 

On the BUF side of the ball, the RB committee isn’t too promising as we have no indication how much RB2 Devin Singletary is on the field, coming off an injury. QB Josh Allen is expensive at 6500, almost a grand more expensive than he was last week. There are much better, higher upside options than Allen at this price. Cole Beasley at 4700 is very reasonably priced and his volume is certainly there! Bills Defense has to be in your playing pool too. Its the highest priced defense on the board at 4300. It’s super safe, so if you don’t want to even deal with other defense possibilities, BUF is your Defense. 

On the MIA side of things, I’d maybe consider their punter if you’re in a league where that kind of decision exists. The Bills D is just too good to have faith in anyone else. MIA is sooo bad!

LAR @ ATL

Over/Under 54.5     LAR -3

HIghest projected point total on the board. This feels like the game of the week. Both teams need a win in the worst way and they both have top 6 passing offenses and sub-par passing defenses. I have no feel for who wins this one, it’s probably the most evenly matched game of the week. 

The Rams come into this game with new players after making 3 trades earlier this week. They added a center, and a linebacker to get rid of it’s 2 star cornerbacks. That kinda seems like the worst formula for success against an ATL team flooding with talent in the pass offense. The Rams need this win so badly that Todd Gurley might even get reasonable RB1 volume. QB Jared Goff at 6200 has to be expected to throw the ball a ton against a historically bad pass defense. WR1 Cooper Kupp at a pricey 7400 is going to get his, but so are both WR2 spots who the DFS community is whispering about this week. WR2 Robert Woods and WR2 Brandin Cooks need to get back on track as they have both played well below their talent for weeks now. That mostly has to do with Goff’s struggles but this is the game for the ship to be righted going forward. These two should burn up the secondary of this pitiful defense. Gurley is always a GPP play and just as likely to go for 20 fpts as he is to acquire a new injury pre-snap and sit out the second half. 

The Falcons are the brother from another mother of this LAR squad. They need a win desperately and they’re going to depend on their QB and receiving corps to bring her home. Matt Ryan has joined Kurt Warner and Steve Young as the only quarterbacks in the history of the NFL to pass for 300 yards in each of their team’s first 6 games of the year. He’s going to keep that ball rolling and get the ball in the hands of his most trusted receivers: WR1 Julio Jones (8000), WR2 Mohamed Sanu (4600), WR2 Calvin Ridley (5300), and emerging superstar TE Austin Hooper (5300). In desperation mode, I think Ryan force-feeds Julio and Austin, who are just a notch above the others in talent. Sanu is coming off of a bad game and Ridley off of a good one, so if you had to pick between those two I’d go with Sanu, but I won’t be going there. Just like Matt Ryan should be this week, I’m livin or dyin with Julio Jones and Austin Hooper. 

LAC @ TEN

Over/Under 41     TEN -2.5

TEN has huge road splits in Pass D; at home they’re allowing nearly 100 passing yards less than in away games. So it doesn’t come as a surprise that this game has one of the lowest point totals on the board. Both teams are bad and they’re both great at losing games. I can’t decide who I think is better at losing games so this is another pick-em type game that I’ll stay away from on the betting end. 

LAC QB Rivers looks terrible on film, but he’s kinda putting up digits when you look through his gamelogs. Other than his one passing game against DEN and the DET game where he put up 293 passing yards, he’s surpassed 300 yards in every other contest. Quite frankly he needs that bonus to be fantasy relevant as much as he needs easy check downs to his RB tandem to give him TD points. TEN has above average defensive numbers but that’s mostly because they try to spend all game running the ball and keeping it out of the hands of the other side. It works though. WR1 Keenan Allen is a receiver who banks on volume to hit value and that just doesn’t seem possible against TEN. Rivers is a sneaky QB play that no one is going to own, but again this probably isn’t the spot for him at all. The only guys I’d consider on LAC is WR2 Mike Williams at 4600 because pretty soon the stars (and his air yards) are going to align and he’s going to find the end zone for the first time this season. He’s priced down to just about the same price Will Fuller was a couple weeks ago soo..he’s due for combustion eventually. Also, TE Hunter Henry has to be in your player pool while he’s healthy and cheap (4000). Rivers likes to make the easy throws these days and so his backs and his high quality TE Henry get great target usage. LAC has no idea how to use Ekeler and Gordon together so I’m staying far away from them. 

On the Titans side of the ball, I wouldn’t trust anyone. The team benched starting QB Mariota last week so we’re going to be seeing QB Ryan Tannehill running the offense in this one. He’s very overpriced at his 4800 pricetag and I don’t think they have any other options on offense besides giving the ball to Derrick Henry on every possession in hopes they can convince their opponents to throw up the white flag out of boredom. At 5800 RB1 Derrick Henry is going to get the touches and he is going against a bottom 5 run defense of LAC, so a 100 yard game on 25 carries and a couple falls in the endzone shouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility. I probably won’t have much of him, but he’ll be in my player pool for sure. 

BAL @ SEA

Over/Under 48.5     SEA -3

*Weather* – Possible drizzle

What a juicy matchup! This has to be one of the most exciting matchups of the week! Who wins this? You could convince yourself of either squad with 100 percent certainty and then feel completely different about the outcome in an hour and I wouldn’t fault you one bit. The popular betting position in this game is on the over. And if you think Lamar Jackson can pass the ball consistently in this one then it’s not a bad position to take. I don’t think he’ll be able to pass the ball well enough without his WR1 at full strength to go toe to toe with this SEA side all game. I’m staying away from the Under/Over and feel much better about hitting SEA at the -3.

The BAL QB wants the MVP trophy this year and he’s going to lay it all on the floor in this one. He’s had eye popping numbers this year against CIN and ARI and MIA and then middle of the line numbers (for a good QB) against real teams. His legs carry a lot of his numbers and in any given game he could take a direct snap or 2 for a couple of easy Rushing TDs and throw for another. At 6800, I think he’s got a nice floor, but I’m not sure SEA lets him get much going in the passing game and as a result he spends most of the game scurrying around. He’ll scramble well a few times but in the 4th quarter in a rockin arena, he’s going to be really tired. If we could get points for how soundly he’ll sleep tonight though, he’d be my top target. He is going to be utterly exhausted. His WR1 Hollywood Brown is either hobbled or out and RB1 Mark Ingram just doesn’t get enough work in the passing game. In general, I’m very high on Mark Andrews but I think SEA goes into this game pressing at the line and giving space to other receivers to tighten up coverage on Andrews and I think they’ll find success doing that. 

On the SEA side, this should be a trademark Wilson game if there ever was one. WR1 Tyler Lockett (6600) is going to get a ton of looks as will DK Metcalf (4800). These two are locks for my player pool. With the team’s starting TE out for the season, both Lockett and Metcalf are in store for some heavy usage in this one. RB1 Chris Carson at 6500 appears to have a bad matchup against a Ravens team ranked 4th in rush defense, but that number doesn’t take into consideration the quality of rushing opponents they’ve faced thus far, which includes, MIA, ARI, KC and CIN. He’s getting it done in the pass game, and on the ground and in a game that Wilson and co will want the ball out of the hands of Lamar Jackson, letting Carson rumble through the defense seems like a great plan. 

NO @ CHI

Over/Under 38     CHI -3.5

This summary is going to be the easiest I’ll have all day. NO is without Alvin Kamara and they’re up against a top 10 pass defense. The CHI D at 3000 is in a great position to halt NO in its tracks. I like CHI to cover the spread. Draftkings-wise it’s not a game I want any part of besides the defense.

NO is going to try to hand the ball off to RB1 Murray but the Bears D overall is just so well coached and staffed that they’ll nip that in the bud. WR1 Michael Thomas is going to get looks all day long but at 7900 he’s too pricey for a low scoring game where he should be double-teamed throughout. There is no one on NO that I like in this game.

On the CHI side of things I love the Defense. They should sack Teddy at least 4 times while he’s trying to find a receiver that he’s met before. That NO offense is so decimated with injuries. RB1 David Montgomery doesn’t get much going on the ground, despite the larger workload he should have this week. I don’t like anyone on this side of the ball either. 

Good Luck in Week 7!

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