NFL

NFL DFS 2019 – Week 3 – 092219

BAL @ KC

Over/Under 52 KC -5.5

WEATHER – This game should be very wet. That means the point total should reduce and things will slow down all the way around. I’ll still keep everyone in my player pool but I’ll take the weather into consideration. 

This game has the highest point total on the slate. Baltimore has a great rush defense. Held opposing teams to 13 yards and 20 yards in the first two weeks. As a result, tons of passing yards for the opposition. Baltimore’s numbers on both sides of the ball have looked stellar so far, leading the league in rushing stats, and have put up a ton of other eye popping numbers, but they’ve also only played ARI and MIA, who are terrible. The KC defense is not good and its easy to see why the BAL offense is going to be a popular stack this week. Lamar Jackson should do well. Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown are his favorite targets by a significant margin. You’d assume that they’re going to want to pound the rock with Mark Ingram/Gus Edwards but if they get behind against this KC team, the RB position does not catch many passes at all so they’ll be blocking from then on out. 

The KC backfield is having injury issues, starter Damien Williams is out, RB2 McCoy is questionable, with an ankle issue but likely to play. And their RB lineup after that is very poor. The KC offense is going to take them as far as the passing game takes them this week. TE Travis Kelce has to be chalk at 7100. Pat Mahomes is too expensive at 7600. Sammy Watkins at 6800 looks like the play, 13 targets last week and he’s going to play in the slot a bunch for quick passes for Mahomes when Kelce is doubled and the Ravens defense is barreling down on him.

NYJ @ NE

Over/Under 43 NE -21

The Jets only scored 3 points against the Cleveland Browns last week, so this matchup is not going to go well for them going against a very hot NE Patriots defense who shut out its last opponent. The Jets kept Chubb and the run game of CLE to 62 yards last week on 18 carries which certainly is respectable, but they allowed 4 passes to the RB1 for 36 yards. The RB passing game is a huge strength for the NE offense with the likes of Rex Burkhead and James White. Sony Michel is not involved in the passing game but as we saw last week, he crosses the 20 carry mark with a lead. The NE offensive scheme was different last week with AB in the mix, but with him gone, there should be a good mix of Josh Gordon and Edelman carrying the pass offense. Regardless, NE is going to dominate on both sides of the ball and we can expect Michel to see a lot of carries. A lot of people like Phillip Dorsett because he’s so cheap and the offense is a little injury depleted. I’ll add him to the player pool, but I probably won’t play him.

CIN @ BUF

Over/Under 44 BUF -6

CIN is throwing the ball well and have missed out on scoring even more points due to penalties that they should have cleaned up this week and onward. Their RB game is the worst in the league so Dalton is going to have to pull it together this week if they want a chance. Tyler Boyd and John Ross so far have made up the entire receiving corps so we can expect that to continue in Week 3. This game is much better suited for Tyler Boyd to play well. On the Buffalo side of the ball, any RB1 that’s not Frank Gore would smash in this spot. He gets the carries, he’s just a shell of his old self. I think he’ll do well, but not well enough for his points to matter. If Josh Allen gets some carries, he could have a solid game. I like Boyd and I like John Brown on the other side. Because of the CIN deficiencies in the run game I think BUF wins by more than the 6 expected of them and overall its probably going to be a fairly boring game as we watch Gore bumbling about.

OAK @ MIN

Over/Under 43.5 MIN -8.5 

Low point total, high spread, so first thought on deck is the MIN Defense and the RB1 for the favorite MIN. Dalvin Cook has been on fire so far this season and this should continue in Week 3. The Defense is generally pretty good and they’re playing against a QB who generally has interception issues so this could be a good spot for them as well. I don’t like playing an underdog offense unless I think they’re going to win the game and unfortunately I don’t expect them to pull the W out this week. Cook should get carries, Diggs for a TD and the MIN Defense is going to double Tyrell and that’s about all there will be to it. Darren Waller might get a ton of targets, but that’s about the only guy I’d even consider on the OAK side. He’s already to 4100 so that’s not my favorite play at the position but he’s usable no doubt.

ATL @ IND

Over/Under 47 IND -2

This is a very popular game to stack. Julio is on a TD streak and he can’t throw the ball to himself, although he’d probably be more accurate than his QB Matt Ryan. The TD share for the ATL offense is massively and exclusively owned by Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones. Ridley is a pretty cheap 5300 with nice TD upside. Julio is going to be very popular so i’ll add him to the player pool but I’m not sure i’ll have him in many spots. The ATL defense is noticeably bad but so is the IND offense. They’ll try to control the clock with Mack (who is questionable) but as soon as ATL gets a lead Brissett is going to make mistakes and definitely have an interception or 2 while trying to over-target Hilton. If you can find a prop bet for Brissett interceptions, i’d put money on at least 1. Ryan will probably do the same and its just going to be an ugly QB display on both sides. Targets a plenty though, so either Ridley or Julio could go off. Also, underdog ATL should win this game.

DEN @ GB

Over/Under 42.5 GB -8

WEATHER – It’s going to rain a good bit during this one so i’m going to downgrade the GB Defense

DEN had a tough matchup against a very stout CHI defense and the GB defense looks surprisingly good in their own right, at least in the secondary. Before diving into the stats, GB Defense is going to be a popular play in this game and for good reason. The Denver offense is already bad and this GB pass defense should make them look even worse. The Denver backfield is in a two person split, so its hard to trust either of them. Emmanuel Sanders leads in the RZ targets for the team followed closely by Courtland Sutton. The rest of the offense has far fewer targets in the RZ. In Week 2, Denver played against a terrible Bears offense. They can’t stop a WR1 and they can’t stop an RB1 in the RZ. The GB offense should see Aaron Jones light the way and Davante Adams should have a field day. I could easily see 4 TDs combined out of both of those 2. Those two are about all I’d touch from this game with maybe a sprinkle of Royce Freeman. He’s just so cheap and we may be a game early, but eventually he should out-touch Lindsay. He’s just playing better. Emmanuel Sanders will be an easy pick for the rest of the drafters because he has such a huge target volume, but the GB secondary is going to do a great job of him. I imagine Sutton gets free for a TD on maybe 4 targets if things break just right. But I think the opportunity for a DEN TD is clearly better for $4400 Royce Freeman.

DET @ PHI

Over/Under 45.5 PHI -5

DET played a poor game against an average LAC defense last week, even though they won. I may be going out on a limb here, but for the tools he has, QB Matthew Stafford just isn’t that good. Kenny Golladay on the other hand has emerged as one of the top WR1s in the league. That dude is good. Also, Kerryon Johnson is in a GREAT spot. If Detroit gets up he should get plenty of carries and if DET gets down he should get targets in the backfield. The PHI offense is either depleted or bad, or both. I like Nelson Agholor and Zach Ertz on the offensive side of the ball because they’re pretty much the only viable options with the injuries. DET should win this game.

MIA @ DAL

Over/Under 47 DAL -22.5

MIA could be the worst team of the last 10 years. They’re very bad and have no motivation to do more than step on the field as they are loudly tanking. Dallas will easily blow out this team. The only difficult part is predicting how long the Dallas starters stay on the field. Zeke will always be in play going forward but I don’t trust that he plays much more after the first half. He should very likely get the 100 yard bonus in the first half. Randall Cobb is a good play with Gallup out, I’m sure they want to keep him involved in the passing game. Cooper could go off at any time. But who gets the snaps and why in the world would they get that much work in this kind of game?

CAR @ ARI

Over/Under 44.5 ARI -2

The over on this game is getting pretty talked up. I could see it. With Newton out, Kyle Allen has something to prove and he’s fortunate to have the best pass catching back in the league to help him along. The WRs on CAR are good. Allen is also probably a better passer than Cam. The ARI rush defense has looked good so far, but they haven’t played against a high quality RB1 until this week. We should expect Christian McCaffrey to be an easy security blanket for Kyle Allen this week. Greg Olsen should play a huge role too. DJ Moore would be a perfect 3rd member of an Allen, Olsen, Moore stack or an Allen, McCaffrey, Moore stack. ARI is the favorite and Kyler Murray is still looking for his first NFL win. On the other side of the ball Kyler Murray, Christian Kirk and Larry Fitzgerald make up a great stack. Any of those 3 would be great picks on their own as well.

NYG @ TB

Over/Under 48 TB -6

The total seems a lot higher than it should be. Smarter eyes than mine agree with that too. TB defense is underrated and they’re playing against a rookie QB. The TB defense should definitely be in play. Jameis Winston needs to play well in this game in the worst way. He really needs to build up some confidence because he’s started the season terribly. Mike Evans and OJ Howard are in the exact same boat. Chris Godwin appears to be the easy play in this game, but I don’t think he needs this game as much as the other 3 dudes. Could be a nice stack to run back with Evan Engram.

HOU @ LAC

Over/Under 49 LAC -3

This one has one of the highest point totals on the board. AND it’s basically a pick-em with the home team kindly spotted the 3 point spread. Hopkins should get some good looks if the HOU line can hold up. That’s the problem with the Texans offense, the O Line just can’t give Watson a reasonable amount of time to go through his progressions. Deandre Hopkins is my only HOU guy from this game. The LAC stack looks real nice – Phillip Rivers, chalky Austin Ekeler, and even chalkier Keenan Allen. All of these guys in their own right are solid plays.

NO @ SEA

Over/Under 44.5 SEA -4

The NO offense and Teddy Bridgewater aren’t quite ready for each other yet. Michael Thomas has zero red zone targets so far in 2 games; he was one of the leaders in this metric last year, so that’s pretty surprising. The newly promoted QB is very inaccurate as a passer, so the only offensive player I feel good about is Jared Cook who he could pepper with easy check downs. The only guy on the SEA side of the ball I like his DK Metcalf who should get solid looks on quick slants. SEA Carson fumbled last week and his coach is notoriously willing to reduce snaps of an RB with fumbling issues. We’ll have to see how his snap share materializes in this game before we can trust the volume again.

PIT @ SF

Over/Under 43 SF -6.5

This is a very low scoring contest expectation and as a result, we probably don’t want to target it too much. PIT is playing their backup QB Rudolph and James Conner is still recovering from a slight knee injury. Even though Conner plays Juju is probably the only play from the PIT side of the ball, because his volume is so heavy. The SF backfield has a good matchup but the timeshare annoyingly takes us off that position. Who gets the most touches, yards, TDS and targets in the back field will likely be a combination of guys, thus very much reducing their fantasy upside. Deebo Samuel is an ok pick if you like living on the edge. I don’t plan on playing anyone from this game. 

Good Luck!

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